Football · Scotland Championship · 21/11, 16:00
Prediction: Dunfermline vs Morton
Team pages: Dunfermline · Morton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Dunfermline2.2
Morton0.66
1X2
Dunfermline
Draw
Morton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Dunfermline
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Morton
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dunfermline
3–1–2
Morton
(6 last)
- Morton0-1Dunfermline
- Dunfermline3-1Morton
- Morton2-0Dunfermline
- Dunfermline1-0Morton
- Morton0-0Dunfermline
- Morton2-0Dunfermline
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dunfermline 1573 · Morton 1464
| Dunfermline | Draw | Morton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dunfermline (rating 1573 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Dunfermline: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dunfermline | Morton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.3 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunfermline 3–1–2 Morton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/26 Scotland Championship | Morton | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Dunfermline |
| 04/04/26 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Morton |
| 17/02/26 Scotland Championship | Morton | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Dunfermline |
| 22/11/25 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Morton |
| 02/08/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Dunfermline |
| 02/05/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Dunfermline |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 31 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 26 |
| 3 | Raith | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 12 | 25 |
| 4 | Dunfermline | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Livingston | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 24 |
| 6 | Inverness CT | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 7 | Ayr | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 18 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 23 | 14 |
| 9 | Morton | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 13 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 25 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dunfermline | Morton |
|---|---|---|
| Raith | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Inverness CT | 5-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Stenhousemuir | 1-0 W | 4-3 W |
| Queen's Park | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Partick | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Livingston | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Arbroath | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dunfermline
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 31/10 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/10 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 24/10 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/10 | Partick Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 17/10 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | Morton Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Morton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 07/11 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
2-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/10 | Partick Scotland Championship |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 03/10 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/09 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 11/09 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dunfermline vs Morton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dunfermline win (72%). Probabilities: Dunfermline 72%, draw 19%, Morton 9%.
How many goals are expected in Dunfermline vs Morton?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Dunfermline 2.2 · Morton 0.66), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dunfermline vs Morton?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.