Football · Scotland Premiership · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Team pages: Hibernian · Kilmarnock
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Hibernian1.88
Kilmarnock1.04
1X2
Hibernian
Draw
Kilmarnock
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hibernian
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Kilmarnock
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hibernian
3–3–0
Kilmarnock
(6 last)
- Hibernian3-0Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock1-3Hibernian
- Hibernian2-2Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock1-1Hibernian
- Hibernian1-0Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock1-1Hibernian
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hibernian 1565 · Kilmarnock 1538
| Hibernian | Draw | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Hibernian: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hibernian | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.9 | 2.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hibernian 3–3–0 Kilmarnock
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Scotland Premiership | Hibernian | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 03/01/26 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Hibernian |
| 10/08/25 Scotland Premiership | Hibernian | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Kilmarnock |
| 15/03/25 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Hibernian |
| 29/12/24 Scotland Premiership | Hibernian | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 01/09/24 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Hibernian |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | St Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Hearts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hibernian
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Partick Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/08 | Shkendija Tetovo UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/08 | Shkendija Tetovo UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 30/07 | Malisheva UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/07 | Malisheva UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Brondby Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Cliftonville Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/06 | Shamrock Rovers Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
Kilmarnock
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Ayr Scotland League Cup |
1-1 | 3-2 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Peterhead Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Hamilton Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Elgin Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/07 | Raith Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Linfield UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | Glentoran UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hibernian win (56%). Probabilities: Hibernian 56%, draw 25%, Kilmarnock 20%.
How many goals are expected in Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Hibernian 1.88 · Kilmarnock 1.04), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.