Football · Scotland Premiership · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Team pages: Motherwell · Aberdeen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Motherwell1.3
Aberdeen1.13
1X2
Motherwell
Draw
Aberdeen
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Motherwell
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Aberdeen
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Motherwell
3–1–2
Aberdeen
(6 last)
- Aberdeen2-0Motherwell
- Motherwell2-0Aberdeen
- Aberdeen1-1Motherwell
- Motherwell2-0Aberdeen
- Aberdeen0-1Motherwell
- Aberdeen4-1Motherwell
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Motherwell 1557 · Aberdeen 1549
| Motherwell | Draw | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Motherwell: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Motherwell | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.5 | 3.7 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 2.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Motherwell 3–1–2 Aberdeen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/26 Scotland FA Cup | Aberdeen | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Motherwell |
| 15/02/26 Scotland Premiership | Motherwell | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Aberdeen |
| 09/11/25 Scotland Premiership | Aberdeen | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Motherwell |
| 27/09/25 Scotland Premiership | Motherwell | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Aberdeen |
| 20/09/25 Scotland League Cup | Aberdeen | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Motherwell |
| 29/03/25 Scotland Premiership | Aberdeen | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Motherwell |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | St Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Hearts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Motherwell
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Stenhousemuir Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 13/08 | HJK Helsinki UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/08 | HJK Helsinki UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/08 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | HB Torshavn UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | HB Torshavn UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Genk Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 05/07 | AGF Aarhus Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
Aberdeen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Dundee Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 22/07 | Queen of South Scotland League Cup |
1-1 | 4-1 | 16 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Queen's Park Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 14/07 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Linfield UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Twente Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Motherwell win (40%). Probabilities: Motherwell 40%, draw 29%, Aberdeen 31%.
How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Motherwell 1.3 · Aberdeen 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.