Football · Scotland Premiership · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen

Team pages: Kilmarnock · Aberdeen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Kilmarnock1.28

Aberdeen1.33

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Kilmarnock Draw Aberdeen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Kilmarnock 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWLLDL

Aberdeen 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLWLLL

Head-to-head

Kilmarnock 1–2–3 Aberdeen (6 last)

Kilmarnock1-1Aberdeen
Aberdeen0-0Kilmarnock
Aberdeen1-0Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock3-0Aberdeen
Aberdeen2-1Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock0-1Aberdeen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kilmarnock 1444 · Aberdeen 1461

	Kilmarnock	Draw	Aberdeen
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aberdeen: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kilmarnock	Aberdeen
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	3.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.71
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.56 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +4’	2.60	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +5’	2.71	3.49	2.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kilmarnock 1–2–3 Aberdeen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 Scotland League Cup	Kilmarnock	1-1 HT 0-0	Aberdeen
05/09/26 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	0-0 HT 0-0	Kilmarnock
25/04/26 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	1-0 HT 1-0	Kilmarnock
31/01/26 Scotland Premiership	Kilmarnock	3-0 HT 2-0	Aberdeen
14/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	2-1 HT 0-1	Kilmarnock
29/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Kilmarnock	0-1 HT 0-1	Aberdeen

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	28	10	31
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	21	9	27
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	20	14	21
4	Hearts	12	6	2	4	26	22	20
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	18	15	17
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	17	17	17
7	St Johnstone	13	4	5	4	17	20	17
8	St Mirren	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	15	21	13
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	15	17	11
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	12	18	11
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	13	29	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kilmarnock	Aberdeen
Celtic	0-1 L	0-3 L
St Johnstone	2-2 D	0-1 L
Falkirk	0-3 L	0-1 L
Motherwell	3-2 W	4-0 W
Rangers	1-3 L	0-1 L
Hibernian	1-0 W	0-4 L
St Mirren	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Aberdeen (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kilmarnock

LDWDLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
31/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
28/10	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
24/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-3	7	2	L
17/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
10/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
19/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
15/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
02/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	7	4	L

Aberdeen

LLDWDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-4	8	2	L
28/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
24/10	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-2	2-3	8	1	L
17/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
11/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	13	0	L
19/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
15/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	4-0	2	5	W
05/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
02/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
30/08	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	6	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aberdeen win (37%). Probabilities: Kilmarnock 35%, draw 28%, Aberdeen 37%.

How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Kilmarnock 1.28 · Aberdeen 1.33), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.