Football · Estonia Cup · 22/07, 18:00
Prediction: JK Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.9Total
JK Trans Narva2.61
FC Flora Tallinn II1.29
1X2
JK Trans Narva
Draw
FC Flora Tallinn II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
JK Trans Narva
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
FC Flora Tallinn II
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
JK Trans Narva
0–1
FC Flora Tallinn II
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva 1461 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1495
| JK Trans Narva | Draw | FC Flora Tallinn II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Market | 66% | 17% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| JK Trans Narva | FC Flora Tallinn II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.6 | 2.9 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva 0–0–1 FC Flora Tallinn II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/19 World Club Friendlies | JK Trans Narva | 1-4 HT 0-2 | FC Flora Tallinn II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
JK Trans Narva
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 10/07 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 16/06 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 13/06 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/06 | Vana Hea Puur FC Estonia Cup |
4-0 | 10-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
FC Flora Tallinn II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 09/07 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/06 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/06 | FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga |
2-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 13/05 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Trans Narva win (65%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva 65%, draw 18%, FC Flora Tallinn II 17%.
How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn II?
The model expects 3.9 goals (JK Trans Narva 2.61 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1.29), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.