Football · Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2 · 11/10, 21:00

Prediction: Goianesia vs Bom Jesus

Team pages: Goianesia · Bom Jesus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Goianesia1.3

Bom Jesus1.12

1X2

40% 29% 31%

Goianesia Draw Bom Jesus

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Goianesia 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLDLWW

Bom Jesus 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDDDWW

Head-to-head

Goianesia 0–1–0 Bom Jesus (1 last)

Bom Jesus0-0Goianesia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Goianesia 1535 · Bom Jesus 1521

	Goianesia	Draw	Bom Jesus
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Goianesia	Bom Jesus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	3.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:36 +3’	2.25	3.10	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Goianesia 0–1–0 Bom Jesus

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	Bom Jesus	0-0 HT 0-0	Goianesia

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rio Verde GO	17	9	6	2	26	12	33
2	Bom Jesus	17	8	7	2	24	15	31
3	Goianesia	17	8	6	3	24	19	30
4	Mineiros	17	8	4	5	19	14	28
5	Morrinhos	17	6	4	7	24	24	22
6	Tupy de Jussara	18	5	7	6	18	19	22
7	Goiania	17	4	8	5	13	18	20
8	Sao Luis GO	17	3	7	7	19	26	16
9	Gremio Anapolis	17	3	5	9	20	27	14
10	Trindade	18	2	6	10	15	28	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Goianesia	Bom Jesus
Sao Luis GO	3-1 W	2-1 W
Tupy de Jussara	3-1 W	1-1 D
Mineiros	0-1 L	0-1 L
Rio Verde GO	1-1 D	2-2 D
Trindade	0-1 L	2-0 W
Gremio Anapolis	2-2 D	2-2 D
Goiania	3-2 W	1-1 D
Morrinhos	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Goianesia (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Goianesia

WDDWDLDLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Sao Luis GO Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	2-1	3-1	4	2	W
03/10	Tupy de Jussara Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
27/09	Mineiros Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
24/09	Rio Verde GO Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
19/09	Trindade Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
13/09	Gremio Anapolis Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
09/09	Goiania Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	0-2	3-2	7	5	W
05/09	Morrinhos Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Goiania Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
27/08	Gremio Anapolis Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-1	2-1	4	7	W

Bom Jesus

WLWLDDDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Morrinhos Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-0	3-2	10	5	W
03/10	Trindade Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/09	Rio Verde GO Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
24/09	Gremio Anapolis Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
20/09	Goiania Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
13/09	Tupy de Jussara Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/09	Mineiros Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	Sao Luis GO Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
30/08	Mineiros Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	1-2	1-2	3	5	L
27/08	Tupy de Jussara Brazil Campeonato Goiano 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Goianesia vs Bom Jesus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Goianesia win (40%). Probabilities: Goianesia 40%, draw 29%, Bom Jesus 31%.

How many goals are expected in Goianesia vs Bom Jesus?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Goianesia 1.3 · Bom Jesus 1.12), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Goianesia vs Bom Jesus?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.