Football · Japan J-League · 21/11, 06:00
Prediction: Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Team pages: Machida Zelvia · V-Varen Nagasaki
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Machida Zelvia1.8
V-Varen Nagasaki0.62
1X2
Machida Zelvia
Draw
V-Varen Nagasaki
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Machida Zelvia
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
V-Varen Nagasaki
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Machida Zelvia
3–1–2
V-Varen Nagasaki
(6 last)
- V-Varen Nagasaki0-6Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia4-1V-Varen Nagasaki
- Machida Zelvia1-2V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki1-0Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia3-3V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki0-3Machida Zelvia
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Machida Zelvia (rating 1595 vs 1473).
- H2H favours Machida Zelvia: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Machida Zelvia | V-Varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4.4 | 1.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.3 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Machida Zelvia 3–1–2 V-Varen Nagasaki
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/23 Japan J2-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 0-6 HT 0-2 | Machida Zelvia |
| 11/06/23 Japan J2-League | Machida Zelvia | 4-1 HT 2-0 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 17/07/22 Japan J2-League | Machida Zelvia | 1-2 HT 0-1 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 09/04/22 Japan J2-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Machida Zelvia |
| 18/09/21 Japan J2-League | Machida Zelvia | 3-3 HT 0-1 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 17/04/21 Japan J2-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Machida Zelvia |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 8 | 33 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 20 | 31 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 10 | 30 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 29 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 27 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 23 |
| 7 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 22 |
| 9 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 22 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 17 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 17 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 16 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 14 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 14 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 14 |
| 16 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 13 |
| 17 | JEF Utd Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 13 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 24 | 12 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 9 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Machida Zelvia | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Gamba Osaka | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Vissel Kobe | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Nagoya Grampus | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Machida Zelvia (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Machida Zelvia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/11 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 24/10 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 21/10 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/10 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
V-Varen Nagasaki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 01/11 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/10 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 21/10 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | Kashima Antlers Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 02/09 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Machida Zelvia win (65%). Probabilities: Machida Zelvia 65%, draw 24%, V-Varen Nagasaki 11%.
How many goals are expected in Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Machida Zelvia 1.8 · V-Varen Nagasaki 0.62), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.