Football · Japan J-League · 21/11, 08:00

Prediction: Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama

Team pages: Gamba Osaka · Fagiano Okayama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Gamba Osaka1.76

Fagiano Okayama1.48

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Gamba Osaka Draw Fagiano Okayama

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gamba Osaka 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDWDDL

Fagiano Okayama 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Gamba Osaka 1–1–2 Fagiano Okayama (4 last)

Gamba Osaka2-2Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama1-2Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka0-3Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama2-0Gamba Osaka

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fagiano Okayama: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gamba Osaka	Fagiano Okayama
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.3	3.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:13

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.32 → 2.22▼	Pinn 2.22
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.50
2	3.04 → 3.22▲	Pinn 3.22

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +1’	2.32	3.50	3.04
08:13	2.22▼	3.50	3.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gamba Osaka 1–1–2 Fagiano Okayama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	2-2 HT 1-1	Fagiano Okayama
22/02/26 Japan J-League	Fagiano Okayama	1-2 HT 1-1	Gamba Osaka
10/08/25 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	0-3 HT 0-2	Fagiano Okayama
26/02/25 Japan J-League	Fagiano Okayama	2-0 HT 1-0	Gamba Osaka

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	33	8	33
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	31	20	31
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	32	10	30
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	30	10	29
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	23	14	27
6	Kashima Antlers	14	7	2	5	29	24	23
7	Yokohama F-Marinos	14	5	7	2	21	15	22
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	28	24	22
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	14	7	1	6	23	29	22
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	16	22	17
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	16	25	17
12	Kyoto Sanga FC	14	4	4	6	19	23	16
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	15	23	14
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	12	22	14
15	Shimizu S-Pulse	14	4	2	8	10	23	14
16	V-Varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	17	22	13
17	JEF Utd Chiba	14	3	4	7	16	24	13
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	16	24	12
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	12	26	9
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	14	25	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gamba Osaka	Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Avispa Fukuoka	2-1 W	1-2 L
Vissel Kobe	0-1 L	0-3 L
FC Tokyo	0-2 L	0-4 L
JEF Utd Chiba	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Gamba Osaka (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gamba Osaka

DLLLLDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
01/11	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
24/10	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
21/10	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
17/10	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
09/10	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
20/09	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
12/09	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
06/09	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
02/09	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	2-2	5	3	D

Fagiano Okayama

WWWLLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
31/10	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-1	0-4	8	1	L
25/10	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
21/10	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
18/10	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-3	10	4	L
10/10	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/09	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
13/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
06/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
02/09	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gamba Osaka win (43%). Probabilities: Gamba Osaka 43%, draw 25%, Fagiano Okayama 32%.

How many goals are expected in Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Gamba Osaka 1.76 · Fagiano Okayama 1.48), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.