Football · Japan J-League · 21/11, 07:00
Prediction: Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo
Team pages: Cerezo Osaka · FC Tokyo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Cerezo Osaka1.33
FC Tokyo1.54
1X2
Cerezo Osaka
Draw
FC Tokyo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Cerezo Osaka
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
FC Tokyo
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerezo Osaka
1–3–2
FC Tokyo
(6 last)
- FC Tokyo1-3Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka2-2FC Tokyo
- Cerezo Osaka1-2FC Tokyo
- FC Tokyo2-2Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka1-1FC Tokyo
- FC Tokyo3-0Cerezo Osaka
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tokyo (rating 1524 vs 1611).
- H2H favours FC Tokyo: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerezo Osaka | FC Tokyo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.7 | 3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerezo Osaka 1–3–2 FC Tokyo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 Japan J-League Play-Offs | FC Tokyo | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 30/05/26 Japan J-League Play-Offs | Cerezo Osaka | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Tokyo |
| 06/08/25 Japan FA Cup | Cerezo Osaka | 1-2 HT 0-0 | FC Tokyo |
| 14/06/25 Japan J-League | FC Tokyo | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 20/04/25 Japan J-League | Cerezo Osaka | 1-1 HT 1-1 | FC Tokyo |
| 08/12/24 Japan J-League | FC Tokyo | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Cerezo Osaka |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 8 | 33 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 20 | 31 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 10 | 30 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 29 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 27 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 23 |
| 7 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 22 |
| 9 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 22 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 17 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 17 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 16 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 14 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 14 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 14 |
| 16 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 13 |
| 17 | JEF Utd Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 13 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 24 | 12 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 9 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerezo Osaka | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Kashima Antlers | 1-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Tokyo Verdy | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Tokyo (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerezo Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 31/10 | Kashima Antlers Japan J-League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 25/10 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 21/10 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 02/09 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
FC Tokyo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Kashima Antlers Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 31/10 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League |
1-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 21/10 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 17/10 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Tokyo win (41%). Probabilities: Cerezo Osaka 32%, draw 27%, FC Tokyo 41%.
How many goals are expected in Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Cerezo Osaka 1.33 · FC Tokyo 1.54), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.