Football · Japan J3-League · 14/11, 06:00
Prediction: Fukushima Utd vs Sagamihara
Team pages: Fukushima Utd · Sagamihara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Fukushima Utd1.53
Sagamihara1.81
1X2
Fukushima Utd
Draw
Sagamihara
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Fukushima Utd
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Sagamihara
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fukushima Utd
1–2–3
Sagamihara
(6 last)
- Sagamihara0-1Fukushima Utd
- Fukushima Utd3-3Sagamihara
- Fukushima Utd2-3Sagamihara
- Sagamihara1-0Fukushima Utd
- Fukushima Utd1-1Sagamihara
- Sagamihara2-1Fukushima Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fukushima Utd 1489 · Sagamihara 1547
| Fukushima Utd | Draw | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagamihara (rating 1489 vs 1547).
- H2H favours Sagamihara: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fukushima Utd | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.2 | 3.2 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fukushima Utd 1–2–3 Sagamihara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/25 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Fukushima Utd |
| 01/06/25 Japan J3-League | Fukushima Utd | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Sagamihara |
| 27/10/24 Japan J3-League | Fukushima Utd | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Sagamihara |
| 13/04/24 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Fukushima Utd |
| 24/09/23 Japan J3-League | Fukushima Utd | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sagamihara |
| 12/03/23 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Fukushima Utd |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nara Club | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | FC Gifu | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 15 | 31 |
| 3 | Sagamihara | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 31 |
| 5 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 30 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 29 |
| 7 | Ehime FC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 29 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 12 | 24 |
| 9 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 21 | 23 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 23 |
| 11 | FC Ryukyu | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | Tochigi SC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 21 |
| 13 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 19 |
| 14 | Fukushima Utd | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 18 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Y FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | Reilac Shiga | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 17 |
| 17 | Gainare Tottori | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 30 | 15 |
| 18 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 14 |
| 19 | Thespa Gunma | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 31 | 13 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 36 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fukushima Utd | Sagamihara |
|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FC Gifu | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Reilac Shiga | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Kagoshima United | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| FC Osaka | 1-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sagamihara (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fukushima Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 03/11 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 31/10 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 21/10 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 04/10 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/09 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
Sagamihara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/11 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 31/10 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 24/10 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 21/10 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 09/10 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 20/09 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fukushima Utd vs Sagamihara?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sagamihara win (43%). Probabilities: Fukushima Utd 32%, draw 25%, Sagamihara 43%.
How many goals are expected in Fukushima Utd vs Sagamihara?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Fukushima Utd 1.53 · Sagamihara 1.81), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Fukushima Utd vs Sagamihara?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.