Football · Japan J3-League · 14/11, 06:00

Prediction: FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Y FC

Team pages: FC Gifu · Matsumoto Y FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

FC Gifu1.3

Matsumoto Y FC1.06

1X2

42% 28% 30%

FC Gifu Draw Matsumoto Y FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gifu 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLWWW

Matsumoto Y FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWLWLL

Head-to-head

FC Gifu 1–2–3 Matsumoto Y FC (6 last)

FC Gifu0-3Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC2-2FC Gifu
Matsumoto Y FC1-0FC Gifu
FC Gifu1-1Matsumoto Y FC
FC Gifu0-1Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC1-2FC Gifu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gifu 1529 · Matsumoto Y FC 1488

	FC Gifu	Draw	Matsumoto Y FC
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Gifu (rating 1529 vs 1488).
H2H favours Matsumoto Y FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gifu	Matsumoto Y FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	3.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	1.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:34 +31’	2.10	3.30	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gifu 1–2–3 Matsumoto Y FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	FC Gifu	0-3 HT 0-1	Matsumoto Y FC
21/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Matsumoto Y FC	2-2 HT 1-2	FC Gifu
26/07/25 Japan J3-League	Matsumoto Y FC	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Gifu
29/03/25 Japan J3-League	FC Gifu	1-1 HT 0-1	Matsumoto Y FC
31/08/24 Japan J3-League	FC Gifu	0-1 HT 0-1	Matsumoto Y FC
31/03/24 Japan J3-League	Matsumoto Y FC	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Gifu

Standings · Japan J3-League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nara Club	16	10	2	4	33	21	32
2	FC Gifu	16	10	1	5	29	15	31
3	Sagamihara	16	9	4	3	26	15	31
4	Kagoshima United	16	9	4	3	29	19	31
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	16	9	3	4	22	13	30
6	FC Osaka	16	8	5	3	27	16	29
7	Ehime FC	16	9	2	5	31	25	29
8	Roasso Kumamoto	16	6	6	4	18	12	24
9	Zweigen Kanazawa	16	7	2	7	28	21	23
10	Parceiro Nagano	16	7	2	7	22	21	23
11	FC Ryukyu	16	7	2	7	24	24	23
12	Tochigi SC	16	5	6	5	15	16	21
13	Giravanz Kitakyushu	16	5	4	7	21	24	19
14	Fukushima Utd	16	5	3	8	31	33	18
15	Matsumoto Y FC	16	4	5	7	15	18	17
16	Reilac Shiga	16	5	2	9	19	28	17
17	Gainare Tottori	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Kamatamare Sanuki	16	4	2	10	17	27	14
19	Thespa Gunma	16	4	1	11	13	31	13
20	Kochi United	16	2	3	11	10	36	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gifu	Matsumoto Y FC
Roasso Kumamoto	1-2 L	0-0 D
Fukushima Utd	1-0 W	3-1 W
Gainare Tottori	1-0 W	0-1 L
Renofa Yamaguchi	0-2 L	0-2 L
Kamatamare Sanuki	4-3 W	0-1 L
Parceiro Nagano	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gifu

LWLWWWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
03/11	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	1-2	3-2	4	3	W
31/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/10	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
21/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-1	2-1	11	3	W
17/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
03/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
26/09	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	3-2	4-3	4	4	W
20/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L

Matsumoto Y FC

DWLWLWLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
03/11	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	9	0	L
31/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
25/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	12	2	L
21/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
18/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
11/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
03/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
26/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
18/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Y FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Gifu win (42%). Probabilities: FC Gifu 42%, draw 28%, Matsumoto Y FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Y FC?

The model expects 2.36 goals (FC Gifu 1.3 · Matsumoto Y FC 1.06), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Y FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.