Football · Japan J3-League · 14/11, 06:00
Prediction: Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Thespa Gunma
Team pages: Giravanz Kitakyushu · Thespa Gunma
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Giravanz Kitakyushu1.54
Thespa Gunma1.19
1X2
Giravanz Kitakyushu
Draw
Thespa Gunma
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Giravanz Kitakyushu
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Thespa Gunma
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Giravanz Kitakyushu
4–2–0
Thespa Gunma
(6 last)
- Giravanz Kitakyushu1-0Thespa Gunma
- Thespa Gunma0-2Giravanz Kitakyushu
- Giravanz Kitakyushu2-2Thespa Gunma
- Thespa Gunma0-2Giravanz Kitakyushu
- Giravanz Kitakyushu0-0Thespa Gunma
- Thespa Gunma1-2Giravanz Kitakyushu
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Giravanz Kitakyushu 1499 · Thespa Gunma 1453
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | Draw | Thespa Gunma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Giravanz Kitakyushu (rating 1499 vs 1453).
- H2H favours Giravanz Kitakyushu: 4-2-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | Thespa Gunma | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.7 | 1.7 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Giravanz Kitakyushu 4–2–0 Thespa Gunma
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/25 Japan J3-League | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Thespa Gunma |
| 30/03/25 Japan J3-League | Thespa Gunma | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Giravanz Kitakyushu |
| 03/10/21 Japan J2-League | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Thespa Gunma |
| 28/03/21 Japan J2-League | Thespa Gunma | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Giravanz Kitakyushu |
| 10/10/20 Japan J2-League | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Thespa Gunma |
| 09/08/20 Japan J2-League | Thespa Gunma | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Giravanz Kitakyushu |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nara Club | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | FC Gifu | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 15 | 31 |
| 3 | Sagamihara | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 31 |
| 5 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 30 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 29 |
| 7 | Ehime FC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 29 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 12 | 24 |
| 9 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 21 | 23 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 23 |
| 11 | FC Ryukyu | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | Tochigi SC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 21 |
| 13 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 19 |
| 14 | Fukushima Utd | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 18 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Y FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | Reilac Shiga | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 17 |
| 17 | Gainare Tottori | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 30 | 15 |
| 18 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 14 |
| 19 | Thespa Gunma | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 31 | 13 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 36 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Giravanz Kitakyushu | Thespa Gunma |
|---|---|---|
| FC Osaka | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Nara Club | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Kochi United | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Giravanz Kitakyushu (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Giravanz Kitakyushu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 03/11 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 31/10 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 21/10 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 17/10 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Thespa Gunma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/11 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 31/10 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 21/10 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 17/10 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 03/10 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 26/09 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Thespa Gunma?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Giravanz Kitakyushu win (45%). Probabilities: Giravanz Kitakyushu 45%, draw 27%, Thespa Gunma 29%.
How many goals are expected in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Thespa Gunma?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Giravanz Kitakyushu 1.54 · Thespa Gunma 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Thespa Gunma?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.