Football · Japan J3-League · 15/11, 05:00

Prediction: Kagoshima United vs Gainare Tottori

Team pages: Kagoshima United · Gainare Tottori

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Kagoshima United2.06

Gainare Tottori0.83

1X2

65% 21% 13%

Kagoshima United Draw Gainare Tottori

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Kagoshima United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWLDDL

Gainare Tottori 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLDLLL

Head-to-head

Kagoshima United 2–3–1 Gainare Tottori (6 last)

Kagoshima United3-1Gainare Tottori
Gainare Tottori0-0Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United3-1Gainare Tottori
Gainare Tottori0-0Kagoshima United
Gainare Tottori1-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United0-1Gainare Tottori

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kagoshima United 1512 · Gainare Tottori 1402

	Kagoshima United	Draw	Gainare Tottori
Our model	65%	22%	13%
Market	66%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1512 vs 1402).
H2H favours Kagoshima United: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kagoshima United	Gainare Tottori
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.33

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:54 +19’	1.36	4.33	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kagoshima United 2–3–1 Gainare Tottori

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Kagoshima United	3-1 HT 2-1	Gainare Tottori
22/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Gainare Tottori	0-0 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
18/10/25 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	3-1 HT 0-1	Gainare Tottori
20/04/25 Japan J3-League	Gainare Tottori	0-0 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
02/12/23 Japan J3-League	Gainare Tottori	1-1 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
24/06/23 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	0-1 HT 0-0	Gainare Tottori

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nara Club	16	10	2	4	33	21	32
2	FC Gifu	16	10	1	5	29	15	31
3	Sagamihara	16	9	4	3	26	15	31
4	Kagoshima United	16	9	4	3	29	19	31
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	16	9	3	4	22	13	30
6	FC Osaka	16	8	5	3	27	16	29
7	Ehime FC	16	9	2	5	31	25	29
8	Roasso Kumamoto	16	6	6	4	18	12	24
9	Zweigen Kanazawa	16	7	2	7	28	21	23
10	Parceiro Nagano	16	7	2	7	22	21	23
11	FC Ryukyu	16	7	2	7	24	24	23
12	Tochigi SC	16	5	6	5	15	16	21
13	Giravanz Kitakyushu	16	5	4	7	21	24	19
14	Fukushima Utd	16	5	3	8	31	33	18
15	Matsumoto Y FC	16	4	5	7	15	18	17
16	Reilac Shiga	16	5	2	9	19	28	17
17	Gainare Tottori	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Kamatamare Sanuki	16	4	2	10	17	27	14
19	Thespa Gunma	16	4	1	11	13	31	13
20	Kochi United	16	2	3	11	10	36	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kagoshima United	Gainare Tottori
Sagamihara	0-1 L	0-1 L
Roasso Kumamoto	1-1 D	0-3 L
Kochi United	3-1 W	0-0 D
Matsumoto Y FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tochigi SC	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Kagoshima United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kagoshima United

WDWLWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/11	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
31/10	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
24/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
21/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
17/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	2-0	4-2	5	0	W
11/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
04/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
26/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
19/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W

Gainare Tottori

LLWLDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
03/11	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
31/10	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-1	2-5	3	4	L
25/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
21/10	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
17/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
11/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
03/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
26/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-1	1-4	1	3	L
19/09	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-2	2-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kagoshima United vs Gainare Tottori?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kagoshima United win (65%). Probabilities: Kagoshima United 65%, draw 21%, Gainare Tottori 13%.

How many goals are expected in Kagoshima United vs Gainare Tottori?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Kagoshima United 2.06 · Gainare Tottori 0.83), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kagoshima United vs Gainare Tottori?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.