Football · Serbia Super Liga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: FK Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda

Team pages: FK Radnik Surdulica · Crvena Zvezda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

FK Radnik Surdulica0.68

Crvena Zvezda2.1

1X2

11% 19% 70%

FK Radnik Surdulica Draw Crvena Zvezda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

FK Radnik Surdulica 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLWWDD

Crvena Zvezda 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDDLWWW

Head-to-head

FK Radnik Surdulica 0–2–4 Crvena Zvezda (6 last)

FK Radnik Surdulica0-0Crvena Zvezda
FK Radnik Surdulica1-2Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda1-1FK Radnik Surdulica
FK Radnik Surdulica0-2Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda3-1FK Radnik Surdulica
FK Radnik Surdulica1-2Crvena Zvezda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Radnik Surdulica 1481 · Crvena Zvezda 1548

	FK Radnik Surdulica	Draw	Crvena Zvezda
Our model	10%	21%	69%
Market	12%	18%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (rating 1481 vs 1548).
H2H favours Crvena Zvezda: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Radnik Surdulica	Crvena Zvezda
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	3.7 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

18.00

X5.25

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)2.00

2 (-1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +6’	8.00	5.25	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Radnik Surdulica 0–2–4 Crvena Zvezda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	0-0 HT 0-0	Crvena Zvezda
05/04/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	1-2 HT 1-2	Crvena Zvezda
02/11/25 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Radnik Surdulica
07/04/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	0-2 HT 0-0	Crvena Zvezda
04/11/23 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Radnik Surdulica
13/11/22 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	1-2 HT 0-1	Crvena Zvezda

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
2	IMT Novi Belgrade	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
3	Partizan Belgrade	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
4	FK Novi Pazar	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Vojvodina	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
6	FK Cukaricki	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Mladost Lucani	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
10	FK Zemun	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
11	OFK Beograd	2	0	1	1	0	4	1
12	FK Radnicki 1923	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
13	Radnicki Nis	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	FK Macva Sabac	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Radnik Surdulica	Crvena Zvezda
OFK Beograd	0-0 D	1-2 L
Vojvodina	1-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Radnik Surdulica

DLDDLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
19/07	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/07	FK Novi Pazar Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
04/07	Buducnost Podgorica Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
30/06	Levski Sofia Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-5	3	4	L
23/05	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-5	1	1	L
17/05	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
09/05	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	0	7	D
04/05	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-4	7	5	L
26/04	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-1	5	6	D

Crvena Zvezda

DDLWDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
21/07	Larne FC UEFA Champions League Qualifying	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
17/07	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	3-0	5-0	9	2	W
12/07	Zenit St Petersburg Club Friendly List	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
03/07	FC Blau Weiss Linz Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-2	6	0	D
29/06	Slovan Bratislava Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	5	0	D
25/06	SKU Amstetten Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
22/05	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	12	1	L
17/05	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
13/05	Vojvodina Serbia Cup	0-2	2-2	9	15	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Crvena Zvezda win (70%). Probabilities: FK Radnik Surdulica 11%, draw 19%, Crvena Zvezda 70%.

How many goals are expected in FK Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?

The model expects 2.78 goals (FK Radnik Surdulica 0.68 · Crvena Zvezda 2.1), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.