Football · Serbia Super Liga · 21/11, 18:00
Prediction: Crvena Zvezda vs FK Radnik Surdulica
Team pages: Crvena Zvezda · FK Radnik Surdulica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Crvena Zvezda2.61
FK Radnik Surdulica0.61
1X2
Crvena Zvezda
Draw
FK Radnik Surdulica
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Crvena Zvezda
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
FK Radnik Surdulica
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crvena Zvezda
3–3–0
FK Radnik Surdulica
(6 last)
- FK Radnik Surdulica0-0Crvena Zvezda
- FK Radnik Surdulica0-0Crvena Zvezda
- FK Radnik Surdulica1-2Crvena Zvezda
- Crvena Zvezda1-1FK Radnik Surdulica
- FK Radnik Surdulica0-2Crvena Zvezda
- Crvena Zvezda3-1FK Radnik Surdulica
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crvena Zvezda 1659 · FK Radnik Surdulica 1526
| Crvena Zvezda | Draw | FK Radnik Surdulica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 81% | 12% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (rating 1659 vs 1526).
- H2H favours Crvena Zvezda: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crvena Zvezda | FK Radnik Surdulica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.5 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.7 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0 | 5.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crvena Zvezda 3–3–0 FK Radnik Surdulica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/26 Serbia Super Liga | FK Radnik Surdulica | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 17/05/26 Serbia Super Liga | FK Radnik Surdulica | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 05/04/26 Serbia Super Liga | FK Radnik Surdulica | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 02/11/25 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FK Radnik Surdulica |
| 07/04/24 Serbia Super Liga | FK Radnik Surdulica | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Crvena Zvezda |
| 04/11/23 Serbia Super Liga | Crvena Zvezda | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FK Radnik Surdulica |
Standings · Serbia Super Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crvena Zvezda | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 6 | 43 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 32 |
| 3 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | FK Radnicki 1923 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Belgrade | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 23 |
| 6 | FK Radnik Surdulica | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 23 |
| 7 | FK Cukaricki | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 22 |
| 8 | FK Novi Pazar | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 19 |
| 9 | Mladost Lucani | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 18 |
| 10 | Partizan Belgrade | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 26 | 17 |
| 11 | FK Macva Sabac | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 13 |
| 12 | OFK Beograd | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 11 |
| 13 | Radnicki Nis | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 8 |
| 14 | FK Zemun | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 29 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crvena Zvezda | FK Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| OFK Beograd | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Mladost Lucani | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| FK Radnicki 1923 | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Radnicki Nis | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 2-1 W | 1-5 L |
| IMT Novi Belgrade | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Partizan Belgrade | 2-1 W | 4-4 D |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Crvena Zvezda (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crvena Zvezda
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 31/10 | FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/10 | OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/09 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/09 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
FK Radnik Surdulica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 02/11 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/10 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/10 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
3-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 14/09 | FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 10/09 | Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-5 | 1 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crvena Zvezda vs FK Radnik Surdulica?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crvena Zvezda win (80%). Probabilities: Crvena Zvezda 80%, draw 13%, FK Radnik Surdulica 7%.
How many goals are expected in Crvena Zvezda vs FK Radnik Surdulica?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Crvena Zvezda 2.61 · FK Radnik Surdulica 0.61), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crvena Zvezda vs FK Radnik Surdulica?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.