Football · Serbia Super Liga · 21/11, 15:00
Prediction: OFK Beograd vs FK Novi Pazar
Team pages: OFK Beograd · FK Novi Pazar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
OFK Beograd1.51
FK Novi Pazar1.36
1X2
OFK Beograd
Draw
FK Novi Pazar
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
OFK Beograd
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
FK Novi Pazar
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
OFK Beograd
2–1–3
FK Novi Pazar
(6 last)
- FK Novi Pazar1-4OFK Beograd
- FK Novi Pazar1-5OFK Beograd
- FK Novi Pazar2-1OFK Beograd
- OFK Beograd0-2FK Novi Pazar
- OFK Beograd2-3FK Novi Pazar
- OFK Beograd1-1FK Novi Pazar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · OFK Beograd 1474 · FK Novi Pazar 1488
| OFK Beograd | Draw | FK Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FK Novi Pazar: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| OFK Beograd | FK Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.6 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 5.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Beograd 2–1–3 FK Novi Pazar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 Serbia Super Liga | FK Novi Pazar | 1-4 HT 1-2 | OFK Beograd |
| 18/04/26 Serbia Super Liga | FK Novi Pazar | 1-5 HT 1-1 | OFK Beograd |
| 15/02/26 Serbia Super Liga | FK Novi Pazar | 2-1 HT 1-1 | OFK Beograd |
| 13/09/25 Serbia Super Liga | OFK Beograd | 0-2 HT 0-0 | FK Novi Pazar |
| 25/05/25 Serbia Super Liga | OFK Beograd | 2-3 HT 1-1 | FK Novi Pazar |
| 09/12/24 Serbia Super Liga | OFK Beograd | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FK Novi Pazar |
Standings · Serbia Super Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crvena Zvezda | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 6 | 43 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 32 |
| 3 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | FK Radnicki 1923 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Belgrade | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 23 |
| 6 | FK Radnik Surdulica | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 23 |
| 7 | FK Cukaricki | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 22 |
| 8 | FK Novi Pazar | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 19 |
| 9 | Mladost Lucani | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 18 |
| 10 | Partizan Belgrade | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 26 | 17 |
| 11 | FK Macva Sabac | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 13 |
| 12 | OFK Beograd | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 11 |
| 13 | Radnicki Nis | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 8 |
| 14 | FK Zemun | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 29 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | OFK Beograd | FK Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| FK Macva Sabac | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Mladost Lucani | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| FK Radnicki 1923 | 3-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Radnicki Nis | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| IMT Novi Belgrade | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Partizan Belgrade | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| FK Zemun | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Novi Pazar (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
OFK Beograd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 01/11 | Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/10 | Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 12/10 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
2-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 31/08 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
FK Novi Pazar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/11 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/10 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 18/10 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 04/09 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in OFK Beograd vs FK Novi Pazar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a OFK Beograd win (40%). Probabilities: OFK Beograd 40%, draw 27%, FK Novi Pazar 33%.
How many goals are expected in OFK Beograd vs FK Novi Pazar?
The model expects 2.87 goals (OFK Beograd 1.51 · FK Novi Pazar 1.36), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in OFK Beograd vs FK Novi Pazar?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.