Football · Serbia Super Liga · 21/11, 17:00

Prediction: Mladost Lucani vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Team pages: Mladost Lucani · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Mladost Lucani0.99

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo1.51

1X2

24% 27% 48%

Mladost Lucani Draw FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mladost Lucani 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Mladost Lucani 3–2–1 FK Zeleznicar Pancevo (6 last)

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo0-0Mladost Lucani
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo5-0Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani2-1FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
Mladost Lucani1-1FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo1-2Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani1-0FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mladost Lucani 1463 · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 1577

	Mladost Lucani	Draw	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
Our model	24%	28%	48%
Market	25%	27%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zeleznicar Pancevo (rating 1463 vs 1577).
H2H favours Mladost Lucani: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mladost Lucani	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.8	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.50

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +14’	3.80	3.50	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mladost Lucani 3–2–1 FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-0 HT 0-0	Mladost Lucani
15/03/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	5-0 HT 1-0	Mladost Lucani
19/10/25 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	2-1 HT 2-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
03/03/25 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
05/10/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	1-2 HT 1-1	Mladost Lucani
02/12/23 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	15	14	1	0	38	6	43
2	Vojvodina	15	10	2	3	30	13	32
3	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	14	9	2	3	24	12	29
4	FK Radnicki 1923	15	7	2	6	22	19	23
5	IMT Novi Belgrade	15	6	5	4	16	10	23
6	FK Radnik Surdulica	15	6	5	4	20	18	23
7	FK Cukaricki	15	6	4	5	21	21	22
8	FK Novi Pazar	15	5	4	6	15	16	19
9	Mladost Lucani	15	4	6	5	12	21	18
10	Partizan Belgrade	15	5	2	8	25	26	17
11	FK Macva Sabac	15	3	4	8	13	26	13
12	OFK Beograd	15	2	5	8	15	27	11
13	Radnicki Nis	14	2	2	10	10	25	8
14	FK Zemun	15	1	4	10	8	29	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mladost Lucani	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
FK Novi Pazar	0-2 L	0-2 L
FK Radnik Surdulica	0-1 L	5-1 W
Crvena Zvezda	1-5 L	1-2 L
FK Macva Sabac	2-1 W	2-0 W
FK Radnicki 1923	0-5 L	3-1 W
IMT Novi Belgrade	0-2 L	1-0 W
Partizan Belgrade	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zeleznicar Pancevo (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mladost Lucani

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
02/11	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/10	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
18/10	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-5	1	2	L
12/10	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
20/09	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-1	1	6	W
12/09	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-3	0-5	6	6	L
05/09	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
30/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
23/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	2-0	3-1	0	3	W

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
28/10	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
23/10	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
18/10	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
11/10	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
20/09	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
17/09	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
11/09	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-0	9	5	W
04/09	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
29/08	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	5-1	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mladost Lucani vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Zeleznicar Pancevo win (48%). Probabilities: Mladost Lucani 24%, draw 27%, FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 48%.

How many goals are expected in Mladost Lucani vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Mladost Lucani 0.99 · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 1.51), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mladost Lucani vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.