Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 08/11, 12:15

Prediction: Vitesse vs De Graafschap

Team pages: Vitesse · De Graafschap

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Vitesse1.78

De Graafschap1.39

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Vitesse Draw De Graafschap

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Vitesse 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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De Graafschap 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDWLDW

Head-to-head

Vitesse 4–2 De Graafschap (6 last)

De Graafschap1-4Vitesse
Vitesse1-2De Graafschap
Vitesse2-0De Graafschap
De Graafschap3-1Vitesse
Vitesse2-0De Graafschap
Vitesse6-1De Graafschap

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitesse 1513 · De Graafschap 1487

	Vitesse	Draw	De Graafschap
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vitesse: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vitesse	De Graafschap
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.1	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.04
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.25 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +4’	2.00	3.80	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +26’	2.02	3.74	3.22
21:33 +3’	2.04▲	3.79▲	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitesse 4–0–2 De Graafschap

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	1-4 HT 0-2	Vitesse
04/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	1-2 HT 1-1	De Graafschap
16/02/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	2-0 HT 1-0	De Graafschap
29/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	3-1 HT 1-0	Vitesse
29/10/19 Netherlands Cup	Vitesse	2-0 HT 1-0	De Graafschap
12/05/19 Netherlands Eredivisie	Vitesse	6-1 HT 2-0	De Graafschap

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	13	9	1	3	36	21	28
3	Almere City FC	13	8	1	4	27	13	25
4	Roda JC	13	7	4	2	17	12	25
5	FC Emmen	13	8	1	4	26	24	25
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	13	6	1	6	30	22	19
8	FC Den Bosch	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	AZ Reserves	13	5	2	6	32	28	17
11	Maastricht	13	5	2	6	17	29	17
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	RKC	13	3	7	3	22	19	16
14	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	15
15	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
16	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
17	Helmond Sport	13	3	3	7	23	28	12
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	FC Eindhoven	13	3	2	8	18	28	11
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitesse	De Graafschap
FC Emmen	0-2 L	2-1 W
FC Eindhoven	1-0 W	2-2 D
FC Volendam	0-2 L	2-1 W
NAC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Heracles	0-2 L	0-5 L
FC Den Bosch	4-1 W	1-0 W
Almere City FC	0-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vitesse (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vitesse

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	9	2	L
16/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
09/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
03/10	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
19/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	6	0	W
12/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
04/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
28/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	4-1	0	3	W
21/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-3	7	4	L

De Graafschap

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	8	1	W
23/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
19/10	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
09/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
03/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
27/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
11/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
04/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
29/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-4	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitesse vs De Graafschap?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitesse win (46%). Probabilities: Vitesse 46%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 29%.

How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs De Graafschap?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Vitesse 1.78 · De Graafschap 1.39), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vitesse vs De Graafschap?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.