Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 20/11, 20:00

Prediction: Almere City FC vs NAC

Team pages: Almere City FC · NAC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Almere City FC1.54

NAC1.7

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Almere City FC Draw NAC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Almere City FC 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLWWW

NAC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Almere City FC 1–2–3 NAC (6 last)

Almere City FC1-1NAC
NAC1-0Almere City FC
Almere City FC0-2NAC
NAC0-1Almere City FC
Almere City FC1-2NAC
NAC1-1Almere City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almere City FC 1557 · NAC 1577

	Almere City FC	Draw	NAC
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	34%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NAC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almere City FC	NAC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.80

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.72
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.14 ★
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:19 +4’	2.70	3.80	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:58 +1’	2.70	4.08	2.19
21:41 +3’	2.72▲	4.14▲	2.21▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almere City FC 1–2–3 NAC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Almere City FC	1-1 HT 1-1	NAC
30/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	NAC	1-0 HT 1-0	Almere City FC
07/05/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	0-2 HT 0-2	NAC
16/12/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	0-1 HT 0-1	Almere City FC
16/04/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	1-2 HT 0-0	NAC
10/12/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	1-1 HT 0-0	Almere City FC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	15	12	2	1	46	16	38
2	Almere City FC	15	10	1	4	36	15	31
3	VVV	15	9	2	4	38	24	29
4	NAC	15	8	4	3	29	22	28
5	Roda JC	15	8	4	3	21	18	28
6	FC Emmen	15	8	1	6	28	30	25
7	FC Volendam	15	7	1	7	34	27	22
8	Maastricht	14	6	2	6	19	29	20
9	RKC	15	4	8	3	27	20	20
10	FC Den Bosch	15	5	4	6	24	26	19
11	Vitesse	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
12	AZ Reserves	14	5	2	7	33	31	17
13	PSV Reserves	14	4	5	5	18	22	17
14	Top Oss	15	5	2	8	22	24	17
15	Ajax Reserves	14	4	4	6	22	30	16
16	De Graafschap	14	4	3	7	18	29	15
17	FC Eindhoven	15	4	2	9	20	32	14
18	Helmond Sport	15	3	3	9	26	37	12
19	FC Dordrecht	15	3	3	9	19	36	12
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	14	3	2	9	23	34	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almere City FC	NAC
Helmond Sport	6-1 W	2-0 W
FC Emmen	1-2 L	4-2 W
FC Eindhoven	3-0 W	4-2 W
FC Dordrecht	2-3 L	0-0 D
Heracles	1-0 W	1-1 D
Maastricht	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Almere City FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almere City FC

WWLWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	6-1	9	2	W
06/11	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-1	4	1	W
30/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
23/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-3	3	0	L
17/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
09/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
03/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
18/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
11/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	4-0	4	2	W

NAC

LWWDWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	4-2	8	4	W
06/11	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
02/11	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
23/10	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
16/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
09/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
26/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-2	13	3	W
20/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
11/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almere City FC vs NAC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NAC win (41%). Probabilities: Almere City FC 34%, draw 25%, NAC 41%.

How many goals are expected in Almere City FC vs NAC?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Almere City FC 1.54 · NAC 1.7), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs NAC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.