Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 20/11, 20:00

Prediction: De Graafschap vs Maastricht

Team pages: De Graafschap · Maastricht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

De Graafschap2.15

Maastricht1.38

1X2

54% 23% 23%

De Graafschap Draw Maastricht

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

De Graafschap 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWLDWL

Maastricht 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDLW

Head-to-head

De Graafschap 2–3–1 Maastricht (6 last)

Maastricht3-3De Graafschap
De Graafschap0-1Maastricht
De Graafschap0-0Maastricht
Maastricht0-0De Graafschap
De Graafschap3-0Maastricht
Maastricht1-2De Graafschap

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · De Graafschap 1486 · Maastricht 1436

	De Graafschap	Draw	Maastricht
Our model	54%	22%	23%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours De Graafschap (rating 1486 vs 1436).
H2H favours De Graafschap: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	De Graafschap	Maastricht
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.9	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.39 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.37

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:11 +1’	1.70	4.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +6’	1.63	4.32	4.31
15:56 +6’	1.64▲	4.39▲	4.37▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · De Graafschap 2–3–1 Maastricht

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	3-3 HT 1-2	De Graafschap
22/08/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	0-1 HT 0-0	Maastricht
22/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	0-0 HT 0-0	Maastricht
08/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	0-0 HT 0-0	De Graafschap
26/04/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	3-0 HT 1-0	Maastricht
24/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	1-2 HT 1-1	De Graafschap

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	15	12	2	1	46	16	38
2	Almere City FC	15	10	1	4	36	15	31
3	VVV	15	9	2	4	38	24	29
4	NAC	15	8	4	3	29	22	28
5	Roda JC	15	8	4	3	21	18	28
6	FC Emmen	15	8	1	6	28	30	25
7	FC Volendam	15	7	1	7	34	27	22
8	Maastricht	14	6	2	6	19	29	20
9	RKC	15	4	8	3	27	20	20
10	FC Den Bosch	15	5	4	6	24	26	19
11	Vitesse	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
12	AZ Reserves	14	5	2	7	33	31	17
13	PSV Reserves	14	4	5	5	18	22	17
14	Top Oss	15	5	2	8	22	24	17
15	Ajax Reserves	14	4	4	6	22	30	16
16	De Graafschap	14	4	3	7	18	29	15
17	FC Eindhoven	15	4	2	9	20	32	14
18	Helmond Sport	15	3	3	9	26	37	12
19	FC Dordrecht	15	3	3	9	19	36	12
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	14	3	2	9	23	34	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	De Graafschap	Maastricht
Top Oss	1-2 L	1-4 L
RKC	1-1 D	1-6 L
FC Den Bosch	1-0 W	2-2 D
NAC	1-2 L	0-1 L
FC Emmen	2-1 W	2-0 W
Heracles	0-5 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: De Graafschap (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

De Graafschap

LWLWDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	17	2	L
30/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	8	1	W
23/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
19/10	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
09/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
03/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
27/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
11/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
04/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	1	4	L

Maastricht

DLLWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
31/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
23/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	3	4	D
18/10	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-5	3	1	L
09/10	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
03/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-4	7	0	L
26/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
18/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-6	3	2	L
11/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-4	5	2	L
06/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in De Graafschap vs Maastricht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a De Graafschap win (54%). Probabilities: De Graafschap 54%, draw 23%, Maastricht 23%.

How many goals are expected in De Graafschap vs Maastricht?

The model expects 3.53 goals (De Graafschap 2.15 · Maastricht 1.38), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Maastricht?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.