Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 20/11, 20:00

Prediction: FC Volendam vs Ajax Reserves

Team pages: FC Volendam · Ajax Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

FC Volendam2.23

Ajax Reserves1.52

1X2

53% 22% 25%

FC Volendam Draw Ajax Reserves

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Volendam 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Ajax Reserves 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDLWDDW

Head-to-head

FC Volendam 4–2–0 Ajax Reserves (6 last)

Ajax Reserves0-2FC Volendam
FC Volendam3-0Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves1-1FC Volendam
FC Volendam3-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves4-4FC Volendam
FC Volendam4-2Ajax Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Volendam 1495 · Ajax Reserves 1499

	FC Volendam	Draw	Ajax Reserves
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	53%	22%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Volendam: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Volendam	Ajax Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.10

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.85
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.47 ★
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +23’	1.75	4.10	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:58 +1’	1.83	4.40	3.31
21:41 +3’	1.85▲	4.47▲	3.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Volendam 4–2–0 Ajax Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Volendam
25/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Volendam	3-0 HT 2-0	Ajax Reserves
02/08/24 Europe Friendlies	Ajax Reserves	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Volendam
16/04/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Volendam	3-1 HT 1-1	Ajax Reserves
19/11/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	4-4 HT 4-2	FC Volendam
31/07/21 Europe Friendlies	FC Volendam	4-2 HT 3-0	Ajax Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	15	12	2	1	46	16	38
2	Almere City FC	15	10	1	4	36	15	31
3	VVV	15	9	2	4	38	24	29
4	NAC	15	8	4	3	29	22	28
5	Roda JC	15	8	4	3	21	18	28
6	FC Emmen	15	8	1	6	28	30	25
7	FC Volendam	15	7	1	7	34	27	22
8	Maastricht	14	6	2	6	19	29	20
9	RKC	15	4	8	3	27	20	20
10	FC Den Bosch	15	5	4	6	24	26	19
11	Vitesse	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
12	AZ Reserves	14	5	2	7	33	31	17
13	PSV Reserves	14	4	5	5	18	22	17
14	Top Oss	15	5	2	8	22	24	17
15	Ajax Reserves	14	4	4	6	22	30	16
16	De Graafschap	14	4	3	7	18	29	15
17	FC Eindhoven	15	4	2	9	20	32	14
18	Helmond Sport	15	3	3	9	26	37	12
19	FC Dordrecht	15	3	3	9	19	36	12
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	14	3	2	9	23	34	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Volendam	Ajax Reserves
Roda JC	1-3 L	0-0 D
De Graafschap	1-2 L	2-1 W
FC Utrecht Reserves	6-2 W	1-6 L
RKC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Vitesse	2-0 W	1-1 D
Almere City FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
VVV	3-2 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Volendam (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Volendam

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	8	0	L
06/11	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-2	5	0	W
30/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
23/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	6-2	3	1	W
18/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
09/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
03/10	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
26/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	3-2	4	1	W
18/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-4	3	2	L
13/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	3	5	W

Ajax Reserves

DWLLDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
02/11	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
23/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-3	3	4	D
19/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
09/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
18/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-6	8	7	L
11/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
04/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Volendam vs Ajax Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Volendam win (53%). Probabilities: FC Volendam 53%, draw 22%, Ajax Reserves 25%.

How many goals are expected in FC Volendam vs Ajax Reserves?

The model expects 3.74 goals (FC Volendam 2.23 · Ajax Reserves 1.52), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Ajax Reserves?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.