Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 20/11, 20:00

Prediction: Vitesse vs AZ Reserves

Team pages: Vitesse · AZ Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

Vitesse2.04

AZ Reserves1.53

1X2

49% 23% 28%

Vitesse Draw AZ Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Vitesse 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDLWLD

AZ Reserves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLDWLL

Head-to-head

Vitesse 2–1–1 AZ Reserves (4 last)

Vitesse2-0AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves4-0Vitesse
Vitesse2-2AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves0-1Vitesse

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitesse 1528 · AZ Reserves 1488

	Vitesse	Draw	AZ Reserves
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vitesse (rating 1528 vs 1488).
H2H favours Vitesse: 2-1-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vitesse	AZ Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.90

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.08 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:05 +18’	1.90	3.90	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:44 +3’	1.74	4.22	3.80
15:56 +5’	1.90▲	4.08▼	3.42▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitesse 2–1–1 AZ Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	2-0 HT 1-0	AZ Reserves
12/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	4-0 HT 1-0	Vitesse
04/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	2-2 HT 2-0	AZ Reserves
13/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	Vitesse

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	15	12	2	1	46	16	38
2	Almere City FC	15	10	1	4	36	15	31
3	VVV	15	9	2	4	38	24	29
4	NAC	15	8	4	3	29	22	28
5	Roda JC	15	8	4	3	21	18	28
6	FC Emmen	15	8	1	6	28	30	25
7	FC Volendam	15	7	1	7	34	27	22
8	Maastricht	14	6	2	6	19	29	20
9	RKC	15	4	8	3	27	20	20
10	FC Den Bosch	15	5	4	6	24	26	19
11	Vitesse	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
12	AZ Reserves	14	5	2	7	33	31	17
13	PSV Reserves	14	4	5	5	18	22	17
14	Top Oss	15	5	2	8	22	24	17
15	Ajax Reserves	14	4	4	6	22	30	16
16	De Graafschap	14	4	3	7	18	29	15
17	FC Eindhoven	15	4	2	9	20	32	14
18	Helmond Sport	15	3	3	9	26	37	12
19	FC Dordrecht	15	3	3	9	19	36	12
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	14	3	2	9	23	34	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitesse	AZ Reserves
FC Volendam	0-2 L	4-1 W
Heracles	0-2 L	2-3 L
PSV Reserves	3-1 W	1-1 D
Roda JC	0-1 L	1-2 L
FC Den Bosch	4-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vitesse

WWLWLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
23/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	9	2	L
16/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
09/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
03/10	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
19/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	6	0	W
12/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
04/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
28/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	4-1	0	3	W

AZ Reserves

WWLDWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-3	10	1	L
30/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
23/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	5-4	5	0	W
16/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	4-4	5	7	D
09/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	10	1	L
18/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-1	5	2	W
14/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	1	2	L
05/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-2	6-3	6	5	W
31/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitesse vs AZ Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitesse win (49%). Probabilities: Vitesse 49%, draw 23%, AZ Reserves 28%.

How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs AZ Reserves?

The model expects 3.58 goals (Vitesse 2.04 · AZ Reserves 1.53), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vitesse vs AZ Reserves?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.