Football · France Ligue 1 · 21/11, 20:45

Prediction: Lens vs Toulouse

Team pages: Lens · Toulouse

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Lens2.02

Toulouse1.39

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Lens Draw Toulouse

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Lens 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWWWLL

Toulouse 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDWDLW

Head-to-head

Lens 4–1–1 Toulouse (6 last)

Lens4-1Toulouse
Lens3-2Toulouse
Toulouse0-3Lens
Toulouse1-1Lens
Lens0-1Toulouse
Toulouse0-2Lens

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lens 1478 · Toulouse 1477

	Lens	Draw	Toulouse
Our model	51%	23%	25%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lens: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lens	Toulouse
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.70

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.15 ★
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.96

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 3.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:56 +37’	1.85	3.70	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +8’	1.83	4.15	3.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lens 4–1–1 Toulouse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 France Cup	Lens	4-1 HT 3-1	Toulouse
17/04/26 France Ligue 1	Lens	3-2 HT 0-2	Toulouse
02/01/26 France Ligue 1	Toulouse	0-3 HT 0-0	Lens
10/05/25 France Ligue 1	Toulouse	1-1 HT 0-0	Lens
05/01/25 France Ligue 1	Lens	0-1 HT 0-0	Toulouse
28/01/24 France Ligue 1	Toulouse	0-2 HT 0-1	Lens

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG	10	7	2	1	22	10	23
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	14	7	21
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	17	10	20
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	22	14	18
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	15	9	17
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	15	12	17
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	13	11	16
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	21	21	16
9	Brest	10	4	3	3	18	12	15
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	9	8	15
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	17	15	13
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	18	22	10
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	13	24	10
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	12	19	8
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	9	19	8
17	Troyes	10	2	2	6	7	17	8
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	9	22	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lens	Toulouse
Marseille	1-2 L	0-2 L
Lille	0-1 L	0-1 L
Troyes	3-1 W	0-0 D
Lyon	2-1 W	0-2 L
Monaco	1-2 L	2-2 D
Le Mans	2-2 D	3-0 W
Lorient	0-1 L	2-2 D
Strasbourg	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Toulouse (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lens

WLLDLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Marseille France Ligue 1	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
30/10	Lille France Ligue 1	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
24/10	Paris FC France Ligue 1	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
17/10	Troyes France Ligue 1	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
09/10	Lyon France Ligue 1	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
18/09	Monaco France Ligue 1	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
13/09	Le Mans France Ligue 1	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
05/09	Lorient France Ligue 1	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
29/08	Strasbourg France Ligue 1	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
22/08	Auxerre France Ligue 1	1-0	5-2	4	3	W

Toulouse

LDLDWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Strasbourg France Ligue 1	1-0	3-1	7	6	W
01/11	Marseille France Ligue 1	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
25/10	Troyes France Ligue 1	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
16/10	Le Mans France Ligue 1	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
10/10	Monaco France Ligue 1	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
19/09	Le Havre France Ligue 1	0-0	3-2	6	4	W
12/09	Lorient France Ligue 1	0-2	2-2	3	1	D
03/09	Lille France Ligue 1	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
29/08	Brest France Ligue 1	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
22/08	Lyon France Ligue 1	0-0	0-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lens vs Toulouse?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lens win (51%). Probabilities: Lens 51%, draw 24%, Toulouse 25%.

How many goals are expected in Lens vs Toulouse?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Lens 2.02 · Toulouse 1.39), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Toulouse?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.