Football · France Ligue 1 · 21/11, 20:45
Prediction: Monaco vs Auxerre
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
Monaco2.33
Auxerre0.97
1X2
Monaco
Draw
Auxerre
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Monaco
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Auxerre
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monaco
5–1–0
Auxerre
(6 last)
- Monaco2-2Auxerre
- Auxerre1-2Monaco
- Auxerre1-2Monaco
- Monaco4-2Auxerre
- Auxerre0-3Monaco
- Monaco3-2Auxerre
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monaco 1573 · Auxerre 1457
| Monaco | Draw | Auxerre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monaco (rating 1573 vs 1457).
- H2H favours Monaco: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monaco | Auxerre | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.1 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monaco 5–1–0 Auxerre
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 France Ligue 1 | Monaco | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Auxerre |
| 21/12/25 France Cup | Auxerre | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Monaco |
| 13/09/25 France Ligue 1 | Auxerre | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Monaco |
| 01/02/25 France Ligue 1 | Monaco | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Auxerre |
| 14/09/24 France Ligue 1 | Auxerre | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Monaco |
| 01/02/23 France Ligue 1 | Monaco | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Auxerre |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 18 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 16 |
| 9 | Brest | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 15 |
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
| 11 | Lens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 10 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
| 16 | Angers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 8 |
| 17 | Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 8 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monaco | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Paris FC | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Lens | 2-1 W | 2-5 L |
| Strasbourg | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Le Havre | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monaco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Le Mans France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 01/11 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 18/10 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/10 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/09 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 04/09 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Auxerre
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 01/11 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 1-5 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 25/10 | Le Mans France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 2-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monaco vs Auxerre?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monaco win (67%). Probabilities: Monaco 67%, draw 20%, Auxerre 13%.
How many goals are expected in Monaco vs Auxerre?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Monaco 2.33 · Auxerre 0.97), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.