Football · France Ligue 1 · 21/11, 17:15

Prediction: Nice vs PSG

Team pages: Nice · PSG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Nice1.06

PSG2.33

1X2

15% 20% 65%

Nice Draw PSG

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Nice 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWWLWWW

PSG 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Nice 1–1–4 PSG (6 last)

Nice0-4PSG
PSG1-0Nice
PSG1-3Nice
Nice1-1PSG
Nice1-2PSG
PSG3-1Nice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nice 1522 · PSG 1637

	Nice	Draw	PSG
Our model	15%	20%	65%
Market	15%	19%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSG (rating 1522 vs 1637).
H2H favours PSG: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nice	PSG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.5	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.75

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.93

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.16
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.26 ★
2	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.47

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 3.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +10’	6.00	4.75	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +5’	6.09	5.21	1.46
17:59 +10’	6.16▲	5.26▲	1.47▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nice 1–1–4 PSG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 France Ligue 1	Nice	0-4 HT 0-1	PSG
01/11/25 France Ligue 1	PSG	1-0 HT 0-0	Nice
25/04/25 France Ligue 1	PSG	1-3 HT 1-1	Nice
06/10/24 France Ligue 1	Nice	1-1 HT 1-0	PSG
15/05/24 France Ligue 1	Nice	1-2 HT 1-2	PSG
13/03/24 France Cup	PSG	3-1 HT 2-1	Nice

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG	10	7	2	1	22	10	23
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	14	7	21
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	17	10	20
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	22	14	18
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	15	9	17
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	15	12	17
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	13	11	16
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	21	21	16
9	Brest	10	4	3	3	18	12	15
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	9	8	15
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	17	15	13
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	18	22	10
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	13	24	10
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	12	19	8
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	9	19	8
17	Troyes	10	2	2	6	7	17	8
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	9	22	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nice	PSG
Brest	2-1 W	1-0 W
Lyon	1-2 L	2-0 W
Strasbourg	2-1 W	3-1 W
Lille	2-1 W	2-2 D
Le Mans	1-1 D	3-1 W
Paris FC	0-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PSG (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nice

DLDLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Angers France Ligue 1	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
30/10	Rennes France Ligue 1	3-1	5-2	4	7	W
23/10	Brest France Ligue 1	0-1	2-1	7	8	W
18/10	Lyon France Ligue 1	1-2	1-2	9	5	L
11/10	Strasbourg France Ligue 1	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
20/09	Lille France Ligue 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
12/09	Auxerre France Ligue 1	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
05/09	Le Mans France Ligue 1	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
30/08	Paris FC France Ligue 1	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
22/08	Lorient France Ligue 1	0-0	0-0	9	1	D

PSG

LDLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Troyes France Ligue 1	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
30/10	Le Havre France Ligue 1	2-1	5-1	3	0	W
26/10	Lyon France Ligue 1	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
17/10	Strasbourg France Ligue 1	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
10/10	Le Mans France Ligue 1	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
20/09	Marseille France Ligue 1	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
13/09	Brest France Ligue 1	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
04/09	Monaco France Ligue 1	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
28/08	Lille France Ligue 1	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
17/05	Paris FC France Ligue 1	0-0	1-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nice vs PSG?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PSG win (65%). Probabilities: Nice 15%, draw 20%, PSG 65%.

How many goals are expected in Nice vs PSG?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Nice 1.06 · PSG 2.33), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nice vs PSG?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.