Football · France Ligue 1 · 20/11, 21:05
Prediction: Troyes vs Le Havre
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Troyes1.53
Le Havre1.1
1X2
Troyes
Draw
Le Havre
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Troyes
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Le Havre
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Troyes
3–3
Le Havre
(6 last)
- Troyes3-0Le Havre
- Le Havre3-2Troyes
- Troyes2-0Le Havre
- Le Havre1-0Troyes
- Troyes1-2Le Havre
- Troyes2-1Le Havre
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Troyes 1448 · Le Havre 1397
| Troyes | Draw | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Troyes (rating 1448 vs 1397).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Troyes | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.7 | 2.8 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Troyes 3–0–3 Le Havre
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/22 Europe Friendlies | Troyes | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Le Havre |
| 15/05/21 France Ligue 2 | Le Havre | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Troyes |
| 24/08/20 France Ligue 2 | Troyes | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Le Havre |
| 27/01/20 France Ligue 2 | Le Havre | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Troyes |
| 09/08/19 France Ligue 2 | Troyes | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Le Havre |
| 22/02/19 France Ligue 2 | Troyes | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Le Havre |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 18 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 16 |
| 9 | Brest | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 15 |
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
| 11 | Lens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 10 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
| 16 | Angers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 8 |
| 17 | Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 8 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Troyes | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| PSG | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| Toulouse | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Marseille | 0-2 L | 3-4 L |
| Angers | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Lille | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Lorient | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Troyes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 31/10 | Le Mans France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/10 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 17/10 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/10 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 2-6 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 22/08 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
Le Havre
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 30/10 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 25/10 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/10 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 23/08 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Troyes vs Le Havre?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Troyes win (46%). Probabilities: Troyes 46%, draw 28%, Le Havre 26%.
How many goals are expected in Troyes vs Le Havre?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Troyes 1.53 · Le Havre 1.1), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Troyes vs Le Havre?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.