Football · Slovakia Super Liga · 21/11, 15:30

Prediction: AS Trencin vs FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova

Team pages: AS Trencin · FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

AS Trencin1.39

FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova1.77

1X2

29% 25% 46%

AS Trencin Draw FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AS Trencin 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWDLLD

FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLLWLW

Head-to-head

AS Trencin 0–1–5 FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova (6 last)

FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova2-1AS Trencin
AS Trencin0-4FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova
FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova2-0AS Trencin
FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova2-1AS Trencin
AS Trencin1-1FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova
AS Trencin1-2FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AS Trencin 1413 · FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova 1546

	AS Trencin	Draw	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova
Our model	29%	25%	46%
Market	30%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova (rating 1413 vs 1546).
H2H favours FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AS Trencin	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4.4	2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.14
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.98 ★
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:56 +27’	3.10	3.75	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +11’	3.14	3.98	2.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AS Trencin 0–1–5 FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Slovakia Super Liga	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova	2-1 HT 1-0	AS Trencin
07/02/26 Slovakia Super Liga	AS Trencin	0-4 HT 0-4	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova
20/09/25 Slovakia Super Liga	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova	2-0 HT 1-0	AS Trencin
15/02/25 Slovakia Super Liga	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova	2-1 HT 0-0	AS Trencin
28/09/24 Slovakia Super Liga	AS Trencin	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova
02/12/23 Slovakia Super Liga	AS Trencin	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova

Standings · Slovakia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dunajska Streda	14	12	2	0	42	9	38
2	Slovan Bratislava	14	8	4	2	32	15	28
3	MSK Zilina	14	8	4	2	37	27	28
4	FC Spartak Trnava	14	7	4	3	28	18	25
5	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova	14	6	2	6	23	24	20
6	FC Kosice	14	4	6	4	32	26	18
7	MFK Zemplin Michalovce	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
8	Dukla Banska Bystrica	14	4	2	8	14	27	14
9	KFC Komarno	14	2	7	5	13	17	13
10	MFK Ruzomberok	14	3	3	8	13	29	12
11	AS Trencin	14	2	4	8	14	30	10
12	MFK Skalica	14	2	4	8	15	28	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AS Trencin	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova
Slovan Bratislava	2-2 D	1-2 L
FC Kosice	0-5 L	2-2 D
KFC Komarno	0-0 D	1-1 D
MFK Skalica	2-0 W	1-0 W
Dukla Banska Bystrica	0-1 L	0-1 L
MSK Zilina	1-2 L	1-3 L
Dunajska Streda	1-4 L	0-5 L
MFK Zemplin Michalovce	1-3 L	4-1 W
MFK Ruzomberok	2-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: AS Trencin (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AS Trencin

WLLLLWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Slovan Bratislava Slovakia Super Liga	1-1	2-2	5	1	D
31/10	FC Kosice Slovakia Super Liga	0-3	0-5	4	2	L
28/10	Slovan Bratislava Slovakia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
25/10	KFC Komarno Slovakia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
17/10	MFK Skalica Slovakia Super Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
10/10	Dukla Banska Bystrica Slovakia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
19/09	MSK Zilina Slovakia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	Dunajska Streda Slovakia Super Liga	0-3	1-4	7	1	L
05/09	MFK Zemplin Michalovce Slovakia Super Liga	0-2	1-3	5	2	L
29/08	MFK Ruzomberok Slovakia Super Liga	1-0	2-1	4	7	W

FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova

LDLDWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	MFK Ruzomberok Slovakia Super Liga	3-0	4-1	5	3	W
31/10	Slovan Bratislava Slovakia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
24/10	MFK Zemplin Michalovce Slovakia Super Liga	1-0	4-1	3	7	W
18/10	Dukla Banska Bystrica Slovakia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
11/10	FC Spartak Trnava Slovakia Super Liga	0-2	1-3	3	11	L
20/09	MFK Skalica Slovakia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/09	KFC Komarno Slovakia Super Liga	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
05/09	MSK Zilina Slovakia Super Liga	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
29/08	FC Kosice Slovakia Super Liga	0-2	2-2	9	8	D
22/08	Dunajska Streda Slovakia Super Liga	0-0	0-5	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AS Trencin vs FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova win (46%). Probabilities: AS Trencin 29%, draw 25%, FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova 46%.

How many goals are expected in AS Trencin vs FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova?

The model expects 3.16 goals (AS Trencin 1.39 · FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova 1.77), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AS Trencin vs FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.