Football · Slovakia Super Liga · 21/11, 15:30

Prediction: MSK Zilina vs Dukla Banska Bystrica

Team pages: MSK Zilina · Dukla Banska Bystrica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.96Total

MSK Zilina2.58

Dukla Banska Bystrica1.38

1X2

62% 20% 18%

MSK Zilina Draw Dukla Banska Bystrica

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

MSK Zilina 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDLDWW

Dukla Banska Bystrica 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWWDLL

Head-to-head

MSK Zilina 4–2 Dukla Banska Bystrica (6 last)

Dukla Banska Bystrica3-4MSK Zilina
Dukla Banska Bystrica1-2MSK Zilina
MSK Zilina2-0Dukla Banska Bystrica
Dukla Banska Bystrica3-1MSK Zilina
MSK Zilina1-4Dukla Banska Bystrica
Dukla Banska Bystrica1-3MSK Zilina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MSK Zilina 1585 · Dukla Banska Bystrica 1505

	MSK Zilina	Draw	Dukla Banska Bystrica
Our model	63%	19%	18%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MSK Zilina (rating 1585 vs 1505).
H2H favours MSK Zilina: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MSK Zilina	Dukla Banska Bystrica
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.8	1.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.82
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.68 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +2’	1.48	4.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +11’	1.46	4.82	5.66
09:12 +1’	1.46	4.82	5.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MSK Zilina 4–0–2 Dukla Banska Bystrica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Slovakia Super Liga	Dukla Banska Bystrica	3-4 HT 0-2	MSK Zilina
01/03/25 Slovakia Super Liga	Dukla Banska Bystrica	1-2 HT 0-2	MSK Zilina
20/10/24 Slovakia Super Liga	MSK Zilina	2-0 HT 0-0	Dukla Banska Bystrica
16/12/23 Slovakia Super Liga	Dukla Banska Bystrica	3-1 HT 0-0	MSK Zilina
16/09/23 Slovakia Super Liga	MSK Zilina	1-4 HT 0-3	Dukla Banska Bystrica
23/05/23 Slovakia Super Liga	Dukla Banska Bystrica	1-3 HT 0-1	MSK Zilina

Standings · Slovakia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dunajska Streda	14	12	2	0	42	9	38
2	Slovan Bratislava	14	8	4	2	32	15	28
3	MSK Zilina	14	8	4	2	37	27	28
4	FC Spartak Trnava	14	7	4	3	28	18	25
5	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova	14	6	2	6	23	24	20
6	FC Kosice	14	4	6	4	32	26	18
7	MFK Zemplin Michalovce	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
8	Dukla Banska Bystrica	14	4	2	8	14	27	14
9	KFC Komarno	14	2	7	5	13	17	13
10	MFK Ruzomberok	14	3	3	8	13	29	12
11	AS Trencin	14	2	4	8	14	30	10
12	MFK Skalica	14	2	4	8	15	28	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MSK Zilina	Dukla Banska Bystrica
MFK Skalica	4-2 W	3-2 W
MFK Zemplin Michalovce	4-1 W	0-1 L
FC Kosice	2-2 D	0-3 L
Dunajska Streda	2-3 L	0-2 L
MFK Ruzomberok	2-2 D	1-0 W
AS Trencin	2-1 W	1-0 W
Slovan Bratislava	3-3 D	2-2 D
FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova	3-1 W	1-0 W
FC Spartak Trnava	3-1 W	1-2 L
KFC Komarno	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: MSK Zilina (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MSK Zilina

WWWDWDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	MFK Skalica Slovakia Super Liga	1-1	4-2	6	1	W
31/10	MFK Zemplin Michalovce Slovakia Super Liga	1-0	4-1	5	4	W
25/10	FC Kosice Slovakia Super Liga	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
18/10	Dunajska Streda Slovakia Super Liga	1-1	2-3	1	11	L
11/10	MFK Ruzomberok Slovakia Super Liga	2-2	2-2	2	6	D
19/09	AS Trencin Slovakia Super Liga	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
13/09	Slovan Bratislava Slovakia Super Liga	1-0	3-3	2	6	D
05/09	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova Slovakia Super Liga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
30/08	FC Spartak Trnava Slovakia Super Liga	2-1	3-1	1	5	W
23/08	KFC Komarno Slovakia Super Liga	0-0	2-1	14	6	W

Dukla Banska Bystrica

WDLWLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Spartak Trnava Slovakia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
01/11	Dunajska Streda Slovakia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
24/10	Slovan Bratislava Slovakia Super Liga	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
18/10	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova Slovakia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
10/10	AS Trencin Slovakia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
19/09	MFK Zemplin Michalovce Slovakia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
12/09	MFK Skalica Slovakia Super Liga	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
06/09	FC Kosice Slovakia Super Liga	0-3	0-3	4	0	L
29/08	KFC Komarno Slovakia Super Liga	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
22/08	MFK Ruzomberok Slovakia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MSK Zilina vs Dukla Banska Bystrica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MSK Zilina win (62%). Probabilities: MSK Zilina 62%, draw 20%, Dukla Banska Bystrica 18%.

How many goals are expected in MSK Zilina vs Dukla Banska Bystrica?

The model expects 3.96 goals (MSK Zilina 2.58 · Dukla Banska Bystrica 1.38), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MSK Zilina vs Dukla Banska Bystrica?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.