Football · Mexico Liga MX · 06/09, 01:00

Prediction: Queretaro vs Monterrey

Team pages: Queretaro · Monterrey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Queretaro1.19

Monterrey1.64

1X2

27% 26% 47%

Queretaro Draw Monterrey

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Queretaro 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWWDLW

Monterrey 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Queretaro 0–2–4 Monterrey (6 last)

Monterrey4-0Queretaro
Queretaro0-1Monterrey
Queretaro2-4Monterrey
Monterrey2-1Queretaro
Monterrey1-1Queretaro
Queretaro0-0Monterrey

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queretaro 1492 · Monterrey 1539

	Queretaro	Draw	Monterrey
Our model	27%	27%	47%
Market	27%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monterrey (rating 1492 vs 1539).
H2H favours Monterrey: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queretaro	Monterrey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.6	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:35	3.50	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Queretaro 0–2–4 Monterrey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	4-0 HT 1-0	Queretaro
15/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Queretaro	0-1 HT 0-1	Monterrey
17/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Queretaro	2-4 HT 0-3	Monterrey
21/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	2-1 HT 1-0	Queretaro
25/01/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	1-1 HT 1-0	Queretaro
12/11/23 Mexico Liga MX	Queretaro	0-0 HT 0-0	Monterrey

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Tijuana	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
3	Atlas	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
4	Chivas Guadalajara	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	Toluca	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
6	Queretaro	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
7	Leon	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
8	Puebla	6	3	1	2	9	9	10
9	Monterrey	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
10	Cruz Azul	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
11	Unam Pumas	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
12	Necaxa	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
13	Atlante	6	1	3	2	6	8	6
14	Pachuca	6	1	2	3	8	8	5
15	Tigres UANL	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
16	Atletico San Luis	5	0	3	2	5	9	3
17	Santos Laguna	6	0	1	5	4	11	1
18	Juarez FC	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queretaro	Monterrey
Atlas	3-1 W	2-0 W
Pachuca	2-1 W	1-3 L
Puebla	2-1 W	2-1 W
Necaxa	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Queretaro (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queretaro

WDDWLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
22/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
16/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
02/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	6	9	W
27/07	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
19/07	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	2	10	L
25/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	12	2	W
22/04	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
18/04	Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
12/04	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	4	5	W

Monterrey

LDLWLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
16/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	4-1	6-1	10	0	W
02/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
27/07	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
19/07	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	3-1	3-2	5	0	W
27/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
22/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
19/04	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-3	7	6	L
12/04	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
05/04	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queretaro vs Monterrey?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Monterrey win (47%). Probabilities: Queretaro 27%, draw 26%, Monterrey 47%.

How many goals are expected in Queretaro vs Monterrey?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Queretaro 1.19 · Monterrey 1.64), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Queretaro vs Monterrey?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.