Football · Mexico Liga MX · 06/09, 20:00

Prediction: Unam Pumas vs Leon

Team pages: Unam Pumas · Leon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Unam Pumas1.67

Leon1.01

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Unam Pumas Draw Leon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Unam Pumas 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWWDDL

Leon 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWWWD

Head-to-head

Unam Pumas 3–3–0 Leon (6 last)

Unam Pumas1-1Leon
Leon1-1Unam Pumas
Leon1-2Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas4-1Leon
Unam Pumas1-0Leon
Leon1-1Unam Pumas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unam Pumas 1476 · Leon 1573

	Unam Pumas	Draw	Leon
Our model	52%	27%	22%
Market	52%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leon (rating 1476 vs 1573).
H2H favours Unam Pumas: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unam Pumas	Leon
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	2.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 2.02 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +6’	1.80	3.70	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +1’	2.02	3.55	3.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unam Pumas 3–3–0 Leon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	1-1 HT 0-1	Leon
26/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-1 HT 0-0	Unam Pumas
31/03/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-2 HT 1-1	Unam Pumas
07/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	4-1 HT 2-1	Leon
15/04/24 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	1-0 HT 0-0	Leon
01/11/23 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-1 HT 0-1	Unam Pumas

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Tijuana	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
3	Atlas	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
4	Chivas Guadalajara	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	Toluca	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
6	Queretaro	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
7	Leon	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
8	Puebla	6	3	1	2	9	9	10
9	Monterrey	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
10	Cruz Azul	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
11	Unam Pumas	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
12	Necaxa	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
13	Atlante	6	1	3	2	6	8	6
14	Pachuca	6	1	2	3	8	8	5
15	Tigres UANL	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
16	Atletico San Luis	5	0	3	2	5	9	3
17	Santos Laguna	6	0	1	5	4	11	1
18	Juarez FC	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unam Pumas	Leon
Tijuana	0-2 L	0-1 L
Necaxa	1-1 D	2-1 W
Juarez FC	5-1 W	3-1 W
Toluca	2-1 W	1-4 L
Pachuca	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unam Pumas

LWDLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
24/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
16/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
01/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	3-1	5-1	0	3	W
22/07	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
19/07	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	9	1	L
25/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
22/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
18/05	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
15/05	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	1	4	L

Leon

WWLLLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
18/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
02/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	3	12	W
25/07	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
18/07	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
26/04	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-4	7	8	L
22/04	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-2	2-3	9	2	L
19/04	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	3	1	W
11/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unam Pumas vs Leon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unam Pumas win (52%). Probabilities: Unam Pumas 52%, draw 26%, Leon 22%.

How many goals are expected in Unam Pumas vs Leon?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Unam Pumas 1.67 · Leon 1.01), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Unam Pumas vs Leon?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.