Football · Mexico Liga MX · 21/11, 02:00

Prediction: Puebla vs Atletico San Luis

Team pages: Puebla · Atletico San Luis

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Puebla1.25

Atletico San Luis1.27

1X2

35% 28% 36%

Puebla Draw Atletico San Luis

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Puebla 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Atletico San Luis 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Puebla 1–5 Atletico San Luis (6 last)

Atletico San Luis0-1Puebla
Puebla0-2Atletico San Luis
Puebla1-2Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis2-0Puebla
Atletico San Luis4-0Puebla
Puebla1-2Atletico San Luis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Puebla 1474 · Atletico San Luis 1469

	Puebla	Draw	Atletico San Luis
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico San Luis: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Puebla	Atletico San Luis
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.50
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.72 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:04 +9’	2.60	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +1’	2.77	3.51	2.49
10:06 +3’	2.58▼	3.50▼	2.68▲
12:11 +13’	2.54▼	3.50	2.72▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Puebla 1–0–5 Atletico San Luis

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Atletico San Luis	0-1 HT 0-0	Puebla
16/08/25 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico San Luis
18/01/25 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico San Luis
03/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Atletico San Luis	2-0 HT 1-0	Puebla
02/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Atletico San Luis	4-0 HT 2-0	Puebla
19/08/23 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	1-2 HT 0-1	Atletico San Luis

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cruz Azul	16	10	2	4	37	26	32
2	Club America	16	8	6	2	38	23	30
3	Chivas Guadalajara	16	8	6	2	26	15	30
4	Toluca	16	7	6	3	35	21	27
5	Atlas	16	8	3	5	27	30	27
6	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	23	20	25
7	Monterrey	16	7	3	6	27	25	24
8	Leon	16	6	5	5	23	21	23
9	Pachuca	16	6	4	6	29	20	22
10	Tijuana	16	5	7	4	25	22	22
11	Unam Pumas	16	5	6	5	24	26	21
12	Queretaro	16	6	2	8	18	24	20
13	Puebla	16	5	4	7	19	23	19
14	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	19	24	19
15	Tigres UANL	16	3	6	7	17	25	15
16	Atlante	16	3	5	8	16	26	14
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	17	28	13
18	Juarez FC	16	3	2	11	13	34	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Puebla	Atletico San Luis
Queretaro	2-0 W	2-1 W
Unam Pumas	1-2 L	3-2 W
Atlas	3-4 L	0-1 L
Leon	1-1 D	0-2 L
Atlante	1-1 D	1-0 W
Toluca	0-1 L	1-1 D
Necaxa	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico San Luis (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Puebla

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-0	0	4	W
31/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
26/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-4	3	3	L
22/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-3	1-4	2	2	L
17/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
27/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
19/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
16/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
12/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Atletico San Luis

LLWWLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
31/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
24/10	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
21/10	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	5	0	W
18/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
12/10	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
27/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-2	2	3	W
20/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
15/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
06/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Puebla vs Atletico San Luis?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico San Luis win (36%). Probabilities: Puebla 35%, draw 28%, Atletico San Luis 36%.

How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Atletico San Luis?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Puebla 1.25 · Atletico San Luis 1.27), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Puebla vs Atletico San Luis?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.