Football · Mexico Liga MX · 21/11, 04:00

Prediction: Juarez FC vs Atlas

Team pages: Juarez FC · Atlas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Juarez FC1.43

Atlas1.82

1X2

29% 25% 45%

Juarez FC Draw Atlas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Juarez FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLDWW

Atlas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWDWLWWL

Head-to-head

Juarez FC 1–2–3 Atlas (6 last)

Juarez FC3-1Atlas
Atlas3-1Juarez FC
Atlas1-1Juarez FC
Juarez FC2-2Atlas
Atlas2-1Juarez FC
Juarez FC1-2Atlas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juarez FC 1487 · Atlas 1495

	Juarez FC	Draw	Atlas
Our model	29%	25%	46%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atlas: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juarez FC	Atlas
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	2.8 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.47 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.08

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +2’	3.20	3.60	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +1’	3.47	3.58	2.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juarez FC 1–2–3 Atlas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	3-1 HT 2-1	Atlas
04/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	3-1 HT 2-1	Juarez FC
06/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	1-1 HT 0-0	Juarez FC
06/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Atlas
29/01/24 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	2-1 HT 2-0	Juarez FC
23/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Atlas

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cruz Azul	16	10	2	4	37	26	32
2	Club America	16	8	6	2	38	23	30
3	Chivas Guadalajara	16	8	6	2	26	15	30
4	Toluca	16	7	6	3	35	21	27
5	Atlas	16	8	3	5	27	30	27
6	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	23	20	25
7	Monterrey	16	7	3	6	27	25	24
8	Leon	16	6	5	5	23	21	23
9	Pachuca	16	6	4	6	29	20	22
10	Tijuana	16	5	7	4	25	22	22
11	Unam Pumas	16	5	6	5	24	26	21
12	Queretaro	16	6	2	8	18	24	20
13	Puebla	16	5	4	7	19	23	19
14	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	19	24	19
15	Tigres UANL	16	3	6	7	17	25	15
16	Atlante	16	3	5	8	16	26	14
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	17	28	13
18	Juarez FC	16	3	2	11	13	34	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juarez FC	Atlas
Atletico San Luis	1-0 W	1-0 W
Necaxa	1-1 D	2-0 W
Atlante	0-1 L	1-1 D
Tijuana	1-1 D	3-2 W
Pachuca	0-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atlas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juarez FC

LLWLDLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
31/10	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
24/10	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
21/10	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
18/10	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-3	0-5	8	5	L
11/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	9	9	D
28/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
19/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
14/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
05/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	1	10	L

Atlas

DLDWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-4	7	5	L
31/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/10	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	4-3	7	3	W
22/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-5	10	3	L
17/10	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
11/10	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
26/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-2	11	4	W
20/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
13/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-3	2-5	8	4	L
06/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juarez FC vs Atlas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atlas win (45%). Probabilities: Juarez FC 29%, draw 25%, Atlas 45%.

How many goals are expected in Juarez FC vs Atlas?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Juarez FC 1.43 · Atlas 1.82), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Juarez FC vs Atlas?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.