Football · Mexico Liga MX · 22/11, 00:00

Prediction: Santos Laguna vs Leon

Team pages: Santos Laguna · Leon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Santos Laguna1.57

Leon1.49

1X2

39% 26% 36%

Santos Laguna Draw Leon

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Santos Laguna 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLWW

Leon 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLWDLD

Head-to-head

Santos Laguna 2–1–3 Leon (6 last)

Leon2-1Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna2-0Leon
Santos Laguna2-1Leon
Leon1-1Santos Laguna
Leon3-2Santos Laguna
Leon3-2Santos Laguna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos Laguna 1564 · Leon 1507

	Santos Laguna	Draw	Leon
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos Laguna (rating 1564 vs 1507).
H2H favours Leon: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos Laguna	Leon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.70

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.50 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.78
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +17’	2.38	3.70	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +9’	2.50	3.78	2.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos Laguna 2–1–3 Leon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	2-1 HT 2-1	Santos Laguna
19/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	2-0 HT 1-0	Leon
10/03/25 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	2-1 HT 0-0	Leon
25/08/24 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-1 HT 1-1	Santos Laguna
28/01/24 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	3-2 HT 0-1	Santos Laguna
27/11/23 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	3-2 HT 2-0	Santos Laguna

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cruz Azul	16	10	2	4	37	26	32
2	Club America	16	8	6	2	38	23	30
3	Chivas Guadalajara	16	8	6	2	26	15	30
4	Toluca	16	7	6	3	35	21	27
5	Atlas	16	8	3	5	27	30	27
6	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	23	20	25
7	Monterrey	16	7	3	6	27	25	24
8	Leon	16	6	5	5	23	21	23
9	Pachuca	16	6	4	6	29	20	22
10	Tijuana	16	5	7	4	25	22	22
11	Unam Pumas	16	5	6	5	24	26	21
12	Queretaro	16	6	2	8	18	24	20
13	Puebla	16	5	4	7	19	23	19
14	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	19	24	19
15	Tigres UANL	16	3	6	7	17	25	15
16	Atlante	16	3	5	8	16	26	14
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	17	28	13
18	Juarez FC	16	3	2	11	13	34	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santos Laguna	Leon
Unam Pumas	2-0 W	1-3 L
Queretaro	5-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico San Luis	2-1 W	2-0 W
Toluca	3-2 W	1-1 D
Juarez FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Cruz Azul	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santos Laguna (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santos Laguna

LWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
02/11	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
26/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
22/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
18/10	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
12/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
27/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
21/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-2	7	3	W
14/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	12	8	W
07/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	5	1	L

Leon

LWDWDLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
02/11	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	6	9	L
25/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/10	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
18/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-2	3-5	7	8	L
10/10	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
21/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
15/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
11/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos Laguna vs Leon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos Laguna win (39%). Probabilities: Santos Laguna 39%, draw 26%, Leon 36%.

How many goals are expected in Santos Laguna vs Leon?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Santos Laguna 1.57 · Leon 1.49), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos Laguna vs Leon?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.