Football · Mexico Liga MX · 22/11, 02:00

Prediction: Unam Pumas vs Monterrey

Team pages: Unam Pumas · Monterrey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Unam Pumas1.56

Monterrey1.52

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Unam Pumas Draw Monterrey

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Unam Pumas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLDWLDWD

Monterrey 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Unam Pumas 1–1–4 Monterrey (6 last)

Unam Pumas2-0Monterrey
Monterrey1-1Unam Pumas
Monterrey2-0Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas1-3Monterrey
Unam Pumas3-5Monterrey
Monterrey1-0Unam Pumas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unam Pumas 1508 · Monterrey 1510

	Unam Pumas	Draw	Monterrey
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Monterrey: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unam Pumas	Monterrey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2.9 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.59 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.65
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.59

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +7’	2.45	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +3’	2.59	3.65	2.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unam Pumas 1–1–4 Monterrey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	2-0 HT 2-0	Monterrey
19/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	1-1 HT 1-1	Unam Pumas
05/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	2-0 HT 0-0	Unam Pumas
17/03/25 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	1-3 HT 0-0	Monterrey
01/12/24 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	3-5 HT 1-1	Monterrey
29/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	1-0 HT 0-0	Unam Pumas

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cruz Azul	16	10	2	4	37	26	32
2	Club America	16	8	6	2	38	23	30
3	Chivas Guadalajara	16	8	6	2	26	15	30
4	Toluca	16	7	6	3	35	21	27
5	Atlas	16	8	3	5	27	30	27
6	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	23	20	25
7	Monterrey	16	7	3	6	27	25	24
8	Leon	16	6	5	5	23	21	23
9	Pachuca	16	6	4	6	29	20	22
10	Tijuana	16	5	7	4	25	22	22
11	Unam Pumas	16	5	6	5	24	26	21
12	Queretaro	16	6	2	8	18	24	20
13	Puebla	16	5	4	7	19	23	19
14	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	19	24	19
15	Tigres UANL	16	3	6	7	17	25	15
16	Atlante	16	3	5	8	16	26	14
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	17	28	13
18	Juarez FC	16	3	2	11	13	34	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unam Pumas	Monterrey
Club America	2-2 D	1-1 D
Puebla	2-1 W	4-1 W
Tigres UANL	1-1 D	0-0 D
Atlante	2-1 W	2-4 L
Cruz Azul	3-3 D	1-0 W
Chivas Guadalajara	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Monterrey (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unam Pumas

WLDLDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
31/10	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
25/10	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
22/10	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
17/10	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
12/10	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-3	4	3	D
27/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	11	3	L
20/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
14/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
11/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	8	3	W

Monterrey

DWLDWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/11	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
08/11	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-4	6	7	L
01/11	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	2-2	3-3	9	5	D
25/10	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
22/10	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	3-0	4-1	8	2	W
19/10	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
11/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
20/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
13/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unam Pumas vs Monterrey?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unam Pumas win (38%). Probabilities: Unam Pumas 38%, draw 26%, Monterrey 36%.

How many goals are expected in Unam Pumas vs Monterrey?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Unam Pumas 1.56 · Monterrey 1.52), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Unam Pumas vs Monterrey?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.