Football · Mexico Liga MX · 22/11, 04:00

Prediction: Tigres UANL vs Club America

Team pages: Tigres UANL · Club America

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Tigres UANL1.43

Club America1.79

1X2

30% 26% 45%

Tigres UANL Draw Club America

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Tigres UANL 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDLDLL

Club America 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWLDDD

Head-to-head

Tigres UANL 2–4 Club America (6 last)

Club America1-4Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL1-3Club America
Club America3-0Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL1-0Club America
Club America2-1Tigres UANL
Club America2-0Tigres UANL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tigres UANL 1483 · Club America 1488

	Tigres UANL	Draw	Club America
Our model	30%	25%	45%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Club America: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tigres UANL	Club America
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	2.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.3	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.45 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.67
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:10	3.10	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +4’	3.45	3.67	2.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tigres UANL 2–0–4 Club America

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	1-4 HT 0-2	Tigres UANL
17/08/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-3 HT 1-1	Club America
30/03/25 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	3-0 HT 2-0	Tigres UANL
18/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-0 HT 0-0	Club America
30/06/24 Mexico Super Cup	Club America	2-1 HT 2-1	Tigres UANL
10/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	2-0 HT 1-0	Tigres UANL

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cruz Azul	16	10	2	4	37	26	32
2	Club America	16	8	6	2	38	23	30
3	Chivas Guadalajara	16	8	6	2	26	15	30
4	Toluca	16	7	6	3	35	21	27
5	Atlas	16	8	3	5	27	30	27
6	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	23	20	25
7	Monterrey	16	7	3	6	27	25	24
8	Leon	16	6	5	5	23	21	23
9	Pachuca	16	6	4	6	29	20	22
10	Tijuana	16	5	7	4	25	22	22
11	Unam Pumas	16	5	6	5	24	26	21
12	Queretaro	16	6	2	8	18	24	20
13	Puebla	16	5	4	7	19	23	19
14	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	19	24	19
15	Tigres UANL	16	3	6	7	17	25	15
16	Atlante	16	3	5	8	16	26	14
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	17	28	13
18	Juarez FC	16	3	2	11	13	34	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tigres UANL	Club America
Cruz Azul	2-3 L	3-4 L
Pachuca	0-3 L	1-2 L
Unam Pumas	1-1 D	2-2 D
Leon	0-2 L	5-3 W
Chivas Guadalajara	1-1 D	2-2 D
Toluca	3-2 W	2-2 D
Monterrey	0-0 D	1-1 D
Necaxa	1-1 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Club America (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tigres UANL

DDLWWDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	10	7	L
01/11	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
25/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
21/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	16	1	L
18/10	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
27/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
19/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	9	2	L
13/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
06/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	5	D

Club America

LDWDWWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	2	9	D
01/11	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-2	6	7	D
29/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
26/10	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
18/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-3	2	8	W
11/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
28/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	2-2	4-2	5	5	W
20/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
13/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-3	3-4	9	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tigres UANL vs Club America?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Club America win (45%). Probabilities: Tigres UANL 30%, draw 26%, Club America 45%.

How many goals are expected in Tigres UANL vs Club America?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Tigres UANL 1.43 · Club America 1.79), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Club America?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.