Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 22/08, 20:00
Prediction: NEC vs Excelsior
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.64Total
NEC2.47
Excelsior1.17
1X2
NEC
Draw
Excelsior
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
NEC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Excelsior
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NEC
4–1–1
Excelsior
(6 last)
- Excelsior0-2NEC
- NEC5-0Excelsior
- Excelsior0-3NEC
- NEC3-4Excelsior
- Excelsior0-3NEC
- NEC1-1Excelsior
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NEC 1495 · Excelsior 1566
| NEC | Draw | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior (rating 1495 vs 1566).
- H2H favours NEC: 4-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NEC | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.3 | 2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC 4–1–1 Excelsior
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-2 HT 0-1 | NEC |
| 09/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Excelsior |
| 06/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-3 HT 0-0 | NEC |
| 13/08/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 3-4 HT 2-1 | Excelsior |
| 19/02/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-3 HT 0-1 | NEC |
| 08/10/22 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Excelsior |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | PSV | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | NEC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | FC Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NEC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 11/08 | Olympiacos UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Olympiacos UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 31/07 | Sevilla Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 25/07 | Elversberg Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Al Fayha World Club Friendlies |
3-0 | 7-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | V-Varen Nagasaki World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Anderlecht Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 08/07 | MSV Duisburg Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
Excelsior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | De Graafschap Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | NAC Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NEC vs Excelsior?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NEC win (65%). Probabilities: NEC 65%, draw 20%, Excelsior 15%.
How many goals are expected in NEC vs Excelsior?
The model expects 3.64 goals (NEC 2.47 · Excelsior 1.17), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in NEC vs Excelsior?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.