Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 22/11, 14:30

Prediction: Ajax vs ADO Den Haag

Team pages: Ajax · ADO Den Haag

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

Ajax2.95

ADO Den Haag0.95

1X2

79% 13% 8%

Ajax Draw ADO Den Haag

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDWWWD

ADO Den Haag 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDWLLW

Head-to-head

Ajax 6–0 ADO Den Haag (6 last)

Ajax5-0ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag2-4Ajax
Ajax6-1ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag0-2Ajax
ADO Den Haag1-5Ajax
Ajax5-1ADO Den Haag

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax 1598 · ADO Den Haag 1467

	Ajax	Draw	ADO Den Haag
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	80%	12%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (rating 1598 vs 1467).
H2H favours Ajax: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax	ADO Den Haag
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	2.1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.98

2 (+2.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Pinn 1.17
X	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 8.03 ★
2	12.00 → 12.00	Pinn 12.43

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +11’	1.17	7.50	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +9’	1.17	8.03	12.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax 6–0–0 ADO Den Haag

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/21 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	5-0 HT 4-0	ADO Den Haag
20/12/20 Netherlands Eredivisie	ADO Den Haag	2-4 HT 0-4	Ajax
22/12/19 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	6-1 HT 4-0	ADO Den Haag
06/10/19 Netherlands Eredivisie	ADO Den Haag	0-2 HT 0-1	Ajax
24/02/19 Netherlands Eredivisie	ADO Den Haag	1-5 HT 1-2	Ajax
02/12/18 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	5-1 HT 3-1	ADO Den Haag

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	12	8	2	2	40	15	26
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	36	17	25
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	32	15	25
4	FC Twente	12	7	3	2	30	12	24
5	AZ	12	7	2	3	24	16	23
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	24	16	21
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	20	20	20
8	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	24	27	17
9	FC Groningen	12	4	3	5	29	28	15
10	Cambuur Leeuwarden	12	4	3	5	25	27	15
11	NEC	12	3	5	4	20	21	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	21	29	12
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	13	24	12
14	FC Utrecht	12	3	3	6	21	34	12
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	16	29	11
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	18	25	10
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	16	25	9
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	11	40	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax	ADO Den Haag
FC Twente	2-2 D	0-2 L
Sparta Rotterdam	2-1 W	3-1 W
Fortuna Sittard	5-1 W	2-3 L
PSV	1-3 L	2-1 W
Telstar	4-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ajax (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax

WLWWDDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
31/10	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
25/10	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
18/10	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-2	4	2	W
10/10	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
15/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-1	14	0	W
12/09	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	5-1	11	6	W
05/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	1	6	L
30/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-0	4	0	W

ADO Den Haag

LDLLDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	1	W
01/11	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
24/10	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-3	8	1	L
17/10	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	0	4	D
19/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
12/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
06/09	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-3	2	4	L
30/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
23/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ajax win (79%). Probabilities: Ajax 79%, draw 13%, ADO Den Haag 8%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?

The model expects 3.9 goals (Ajax 2.95 · ADO Den Haag 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.