Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 21/11, 21:00
Prediction: FC Groningen vs Heerenveen
Team pages: FC Groningen · Heerenveen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.75Total
FC Groningen1.89
Heerenveen1.85
1X2
FC Groningen
Draw
Heerenveen
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Groningen
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Heerenveen
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Groningen
3–3
Heerenveen
(6 last)
- Heerenveen0-2FC Groningen
- FC Groningen2-1Heerenveen
- FC Groningen1-0Heerenveen
- Heerenveen2-1FC Groningen
- FC Groningen0-2Heerenveen
- Heerenveen3-1FC Groningen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Groningen 1459 · Heerenveen 1542
| FC Groningen | Draw | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 23% | 38% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heerenveen (rating 1459 vs 1542).
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Groningen | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 2.6 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.1 | 2.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 2.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Groningen 3–0–3 Heerenveen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Heerenveen | 0-2 HT 0-0 | FC Groningen |
| 16/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Heerenveen |
| 25/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Heerenveen |
| 22/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Heerenveen | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Groningen |
| 19/03/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Heerenveen |
| 22/01/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Heerenveen | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Groningen |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 23 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 21 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | 17 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | 12 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Groningen | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 2-3 L | 4-0 W |
| NEC | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Excelsior | 5-1 W | 4-0 W |
| PEC Zwolle | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| PSV | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Heerenveen (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Groningen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 01/11 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 2-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 11/10 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 28/08 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
Heerenveen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 5-3 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 31/10 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/10 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 16/10 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/10 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 22/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Groningen win (39%). Probabilities: FC Groningen 39%, draw 24%, Heerenveen 37%.
How many goals are expected in FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?
The model expects 3.75 goals (FC Groningen 1.89 · Heerenveen 1.85), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.