Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 22/11, 12:15
Prediction: FC Twente vs Willem II
Team pages: FC Twente · Willem II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.39Total
FC Twente3.2
Willem II1.2
1X2
FC Twente
Draw
Willem II
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Twente
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Willem II
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Twente
4–2–0
Willem II
(6 last)
- FC Twente6-2Willem II
- Willem II0-1FC Twente
- Willem II0-1FC Twente
- FC Twente1-1Willem II
- FC Twente1-1Willem II
- Willem II0-3FC Twente
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Twente 1612 · Willem II 1419
| FC Twente | Draw | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 88% | 8% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (rating 1612 vs 1419).
- H2H favours FC Twente: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Twente | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1 | 0.9 / 3.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 7.3 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Twente 4–2–0 Willem II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Twente | 6-2 HT 2-2 | Willem II |
| 02/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Twente |
| 22/01/22 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FC Twente |
| 17/10/21 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Twente | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Willem II |
| 06/03/21 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Twente | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Willem II |
| 17/10/20 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 0-3 HT 0-1 | FC Twente |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 23 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 21 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | 17 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | 12 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Twente | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 2-2 D | 1-5 L |
| Excelsior | 9-0 W | 0-3 L |
| AZ | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Utrecht | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Fortuna Sittard | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| PSV | 3-2 W | 0-7 L |
| Cambuur Leeuwarden | 4-1 W | 1-6 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Twente (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Twente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 01/11 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
5-0 | 9-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
Willem II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 31/10 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-7 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 24/10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-3 | 1-6 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 11/10 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 11/09 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Twente vs Willem II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Twente win (83%). Probabilities: FC Twente 83%, draw 11%, Willem II 7%.
How many goals are expected in FC Twente vs Willem II?
The model expects 4.39 goals (FC Twente 3.2 · Willem II 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Twente vs Willem II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.