Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 21/11, 18:45

Prediction: FC Utrecht vs Cambuur Leeuwarden

Team pages: FC Utrecht · Cambuur Leeuwarden

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

FC Utrecht2.22

Cambuur Leeuwarden1.69

1X2

49% 23% 28%

FC Utrecht Draw Cambuur Leeuwarden

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Utrecht 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWWDLL

Cambuur Leeuwarden 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWDWWL

Head-to-head

FC Utrecht 2–2–2 Cambuur Leeuwarden (6 last)

Cambuur Leeuwarden1-0FC Utrecht
Cambuur Leeuwarden0-3FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht0-0Cambuur Leeuwarden
FC Utrecht3-2Cambuur Leeuwarden
Cambuur Leeuwarden2-1FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht2-2Cambuur Leeuwarden

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Utrecht 1487 · Cambuur Leeuwarden 1533

	FC Utrecht	Draw	Cambuur Leeuwarden
Our model	49%	22%	29%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cambuur Leeuwarden (rating 1487 vs 1533).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Utrecht	Cambuur Leeuwarden
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.8	2.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	1.7 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.80

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.99
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.98 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +21’	1.91	3.80	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +7’	1.99	3.98	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Utrecht 2–2–2 Cambuur Leeuwarden

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Club Friendly List	Cambuur Leeuwarden	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht
06/05/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Cambuur Leeuwarden	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Utrecht
13/08/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	0-0 HT 0-0	Cambuur Leeuwarden
05/02/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	3-2 HT 2-2	Cambuur Leeuwarden
21/11/21 Netherlands Eredivisie	Cambuur Leeuwarden	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Utrecht
25/01/17 Netherlands Cup	FC Utrecht	2-2 HT 1-0	Cambuur Leeuwarden

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	12	8	2	2	40	15	26
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	36	17	25
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	32	15	25
4	FC Twente	12	7	3	2	30	12	24
5	AZ	12	7	2	3	24	16	23
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	24	16	21
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	20	20	20
8	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	24	27	17
9	FC Groningen	12	4	3	5	29	28	15
10	Cambuur Leeuwarden	12	4	3	5	25	27	15
11	NEC	12	3	5	4	20	21	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	21	29	12
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	13	24	12
14	FC Utrecht	12	3	3	6	21	34	12
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	16	29	11
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	18	25	10
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	16	25	9
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	11	40	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Utrecht	Cambuur Leeuwarden
NEC	2-3 L	3-0 W
Telstar	2-4 L	2-2 D
PEC Zwolle	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Twente	2-1 W	1-4 L
Willem II	3-1 W	6-1 W
Feyenoord	0-5 L	2-5 L
Go Ahead Eagles	3-3 D	4-0 W
PSV	1-6 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cambuur Leeuwarden (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Utrecht

DLDWLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-3	3	5	L
01/11	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-3	2-4	9	2	L
24/10	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
18/10	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/10	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-1	7	2	W
20/09	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-3	0-5	3	4	L
13/09	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
08/09	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	3-3	7	3	D
30/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-6	0	6	L
22/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-3	7	0	D

Cambuur Leeuwarden

LLDWDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-3	2-5	1	5	L
31/10	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
24/10	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	6-1	4	2	W
18/10	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
11/10	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
19/09	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
12/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
06/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	2	8	D
30/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
23/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-4	2-5	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Utrecht vs Cambuur Leeuwarden?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Utrecht win (49%). Probabilities: FC Utrecht 49%, draw 23%, Cambuur Leeuwarden 28%.

How many goals are expected in FC Utrecht vs Cambuur Leeuwarden?

The model expects 3.91 goals (FC Utrecht 2.22 · Cambuur Leeuwarden 1.69), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Utrecht vs Cambuur Leeuwarden?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.