Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 21/11, 18:45
Prediction: Feyenoord vs Excelsior
Team pages: Feyenoord · Excelsior
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.01Total
Feyenoord3.01
Excelsior1.01
1X2
Feyenoord
Draw
Excelsior
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Feyenoord
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Excelsior
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Feyenoord
6–0
Excelsior
(6 last)
- Feyenoord2-1Excelsior
- Excelsior1-2Feyenoord
- Feyenoord4-0Excelsior
- Excelsior2-4Feyenoord
- Excelsior0-2Feyenoord
- Feyenoord5-1Excelsior
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Feyenoord 1553 · Excelsior 1441
| Feyenoord | Draw | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 78% | 13% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Feyenoord (rating 1553 vs 1441).
- H2H favours Feyenoord: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Feyenoord | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 1.6 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Feyenoord 6–0–0 Excelsior
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Feyenoord | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Excelsior |
| 16/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Feyenoord |
| 19/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Feyenoord | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Excelsior |
| 25/11/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 2-4 HT 1-1 | Feyenoord |
| 07/05/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Feyenoord |
| 13/11/22 Netherlands Eredivisie | Feyenoord | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Excelsior |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 23 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 21 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | 17 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | 12 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Feyenoord | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 3-5 L | 0-4 L |
| Fortuna Sittard | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| FC Utrecht | 5-0 W | 1-2 L |
| NEC | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Feyenoord (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Feyenoord
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 31/10 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 25/10 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 17/10 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-2 | 4-3 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 05/09 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
4-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
Excelsior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 01/11 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-5 | 0-9 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/10 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 11/10 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/09 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Feyenoord win (78%). Probabilities: Feyenoord 78%, draw 14%, Excelsior 9%.
How many goals are expected in Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
The model expects 4.01 goals (Feyenoord 3.01 · Excelsior 1.01), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.