Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 21/11, 16:30
Prediction: NEC vs PSV
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.05Total
NEC1.62
PSV2.43
1X2
NEC
Draw
PSV
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2 8%
Recent form · 10 last
NEC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
PSV
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NEC
3–1–2
PSV
(6 last)
- PSV2-3NEC
- NEC3-2PSV
- NEC3-5PSV
- NEC3-3PSV
- PSV2-0NEC
- NEC3-1PSV
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NEC 1530 · PSV 1556
| NEC | Draw | PSV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 21% | 55% |
| Market | 24% | 22% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours NEC: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NEC | PSV | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.8 | 3.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 100/0/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.3 | 2.8 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC 3–1–2 PSV
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 2-3 HT 1-2 | NEC |
| 03/03/26 Netherlands Cup | NEC | 3-2 HT 2-2 | PSV |
| 13/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 3-5 HT 1-3 | PSV |
| 01/02/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 3-3 HT 0-0 | PSV |
| 14/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 2-0 HT 2-0 | NEC |
| 30/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 3-1 HT 1-1 | PSV |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 23 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 21 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | 17 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | 12 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NEC | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht | 3-2 W | 6-1 W |
| Heerenveen | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| FC Groningen | 2-2 D | 5-1 W |
| Ajax | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Cambuur Leeuwarden | 0-3 L | 5-2 W |
| Feyenoord | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: PSV (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NEC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 31/10 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/10 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 08/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
PSV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-1 | 5-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 31/10 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 7-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 25/10 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 17/10 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 09/10 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 6-1 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NEC vs PSV?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PSV win (55%). Probabilities: NEC 24%, draw 21%, PSV 55%.
How many goals are expected in NEC vs PSV?
The model expects 4.05 goals (NEC 1.62 · PSV 2.43), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in NEC vs PSV?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.