Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 22/11, 14:30

Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ

Team pages: Sparta Rotterdam · AZ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Sparta Rotterdam1.47

AZ2.25

1X2

24% 23% 54%

Sparta Rotterdam Draw AZ

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Rotterdam 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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AZ 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sparta Rotterdam 1–1–4 AZ (6 last)

AZ3-1Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam0-1AZ
AZ1-2Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam1-2AZ
Sparta Rotterdam1-1AZ
AZ2-0Sparta Rotterdam

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Rotterdam 1449 · AZ 1528

	Sparta Rotterdam	Draw	AZ
Our model	24%	22%	54%
Market	23%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AZ (rating 1449 vs 1528).
H2H favours AZ: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Rotterdam	AZ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.7	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.2	1.9 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.00

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.22 ★
2	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +5’	4.00	4.00	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +8’	4.10	4.22	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Rotterdam 1–1–4 AZ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	3-1 HT 0-0	Sparta Rotterdam
02/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	0-1 HT 0-0	AZ
26/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	1-2 HT 0-0	Sparta Rotterdam
24/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	1-2 HT 1-1	AZ
02/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	1-1 HT 0-1	AZ
17/09/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	2-0 HT 2-0	Sparta Rotterdam

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	12	8	2	2	40	15	26
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	36	17	25
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	32	15	25
4	FC Twente	12	7	3	2	30	12	24
5	AZ	12	7	2	3	24	16	23
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	24	16	21
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	20	20	20
8	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	24	27	17
9	FC Groningen	12	4	3	5	29	28	15
10	Cambuur Leeuwarden	12	4	3	5	25	27	15
11	NEC	12	3	5	4	20	21	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	21	29	12
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	13	24	12
14	FC Utrecht	12	3	3	6	21	34	12
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	16	29	11
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	18	25	10
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	16	25	9
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	11	40	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam	AZ
FC Groningen	3-2 W	4-3 W
Ajax	1-2 L	0-1 L
Willem II	3-2 W	1-1 D
Go Ahead Eagles	3-3 D	5-2 W
Heerenveen	0-4 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AZ (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Rotterdam

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-3	9	1	L
01/11	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	3-2	7	4	W
25/10	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
17/10	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-2	3	8	W
10/10	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
19/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
13/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	5	2	L
04/09	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	15	2	D
29/08	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
22/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-3	5	0	D

AZ

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-3	7	6	W
31/10	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
25/10	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
18/10	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
10/10	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
20/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
06/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	3-2	3	3	W
29/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	5-2	8	0	W
22/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	15	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AZ win (54%). Probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 24%, draw 23%, AZ 54%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Sparta Rotterdam 1.47 · AZ 2.25), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.