Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 21/11, 21:00

Prediction: Telstar vs PEC Zwolle

Team pages: Telstar · PEC Zwolle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Telstar1.74

PEC Zwolle1.41

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Telstar Draw PEC Zwolle

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Telstar 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDLLWD

PEC Zwolle 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLWDWD

Head-to-head

Telstar 0–4 PEC Zwolle (4 last)

PEC Zwolle4-1Telstar
Telstar0-2PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle2-0Telstar
Telstar0-5PEC Zwolle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Telstar 1437 · PEC Zwolle 1478

	Telstar	Draw	PEC Zwolle
Our model	44%	25%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PEC Zwolle (rating 1437 vs 1478).
H2H favours PEC Zwolle: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Telstar	PEC Zwolle
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.2	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.58
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.47 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +14’	2.10	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +9’	2.04	3.73	3.44
07:10 +9’	2.07▲	3.63▼	3.46▲
10:05 +10’	2.09▲	3.56▼	3.48▲
11:17 +3’	2.08▼	3.58▲	3.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Telstar 0–0–4 PEC Zwolle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	4-1 HT 1-0	Telstar
15/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Telstar	0-2 HT 0-1	PEC Zwolle
14/04/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PEC Zwolle	2-0 HT 1-0	Telstar
12/08/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Telstar	0-5 HT 0-3	PEC Zwolle

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	12	8	2	2	40	15	26
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	36	17	25
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	32	15	25
4	FC Twente	12	7	3	2	30	12	24
5	AZ	12	7	2	3	24	16	23
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	24	16	21
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	20	20	20
8	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	24	27	17
9	FC Groningen	12	4	3	5	29	28	15
10	Cambuur Leeuwarden	12	4	3	5	25	27	15
11	NEC	12	3	5	4	20	21	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	21	29	12
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	13	24	12
14	FC Utrecht	12	3	3	6	21	34	12
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	16	29	11
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	18	25	10
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	16	25	9
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	11	40	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Telstar	PEC Zwolle
FC Utrecht	4-2 W	1-1 D
Go Ahead Eagles	2-3 L	4-1 W
Feyenoord	3-4 L	0-7 L
ADO Den Haag	2-2 D	1-0 W
Heerenveen	0-0 D	2-0 W
Cambuur Leeuwarden	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Telstar

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	4	5	D
01/11	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	3-1	4-2	3	2	W
23/10	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-3	2	2	L
17/10	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	2-3	3-4	6	5	L
11/10	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
20/09	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
13/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
09/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
30/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-4	5	0	L

PEC Zwolle

WLDLLLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
01/11	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
24/10	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
18/10	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	4-1	5	0	W
11/10	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
13/09	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-3	0-7	5	0	L
04/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
22/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Telstar win (44%). Probabilities: Telstar 44%, draw 26%, PEC Zwolle 30%.

How many goals are expected in Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Telstar 1.74 · PEC Zwolle 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.