Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 21/11, 14:45

Prediction: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok

Team pages: Cracovia Krakow · Jagiellonia Bialystok

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Cracovia Krakow1.58

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.5

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Cracovia Krakow Draw Jagiellonia Bialystok

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cracovia Krakow 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWDLLL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Cracovia Krakow 2–2–2 Jagiellonia Bialystok (6 last)

Cracovia Krakow0-0Jagiellonia Bialystok
Jagiellonia Bialystok5-2Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow2-2Jagiellonia Bialystok
Jagiellonia Bialystok2-4Cracovia Krakow
Jagiellonia Bialystok1-3Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow2-4Jagiellonia Bialystok

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cracovia Krakow 1445 · Jagiellonia Bialystok 1528

	Cracovia Krakow	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jagiellonia Bialystok (rating 1445 vs 1528).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cracovia Krakow	Jagiellonia Bialystok
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.6	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:42 +39’	2.38	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +9’	2.43	3.83	2.64
17:02 +3’	2.40▼	3.88▲	2.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cracovia Krakow 2–2–2 Jagiellonia Bialystok

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Cracovia Krakow	0-0 HT 0-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok
10/08/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	5-2 HT 1-2	Cracovia Krakow
23/02/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Cracovia Krakow	2-2 HT 0-2	Jagiellonia Bialystok
17/08/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	2-4 HT 2-2	Cracovia Krakow
14/04/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-3 HT 1-2	Cracovia Krakow
08/10/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Cracovia Krakow	2-4 HT 0-2	Jagiellonia Bialystok

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	34	13	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	23	12	31
3	Legia Warsaw	14	6	6	2	25	15	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	20	15	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	22	19	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	18	17	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	24	20	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	25	20	21
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	13	7	0	6	18	18	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	22	24	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
13	Widzew Lodz	14	2	8	4	20	19	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
16	Rakow Czestochowa	14	4	0	10	23	31	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	17	25	10
18	Wieczysta Krakow	14	2	2	10	18	28	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cracovia Krakow	Jagiellonia Bialystok
Wisla Krakow	1-2 L	0-2 L
Legia Warsaw	1-1 D	1-3 L
Zaglebie Lubin	3-1 W	0-1 L
GKS Katowice	2-3 L	1-0 W
Wisla Plock	1-3 L	1-0 W
Gornik Zabrze	0-1 L	1-3 L
Wieczysta Krakow	3-2 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Cracovia Krakow (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cracovia Krakow

WLLLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	1-2	3	9	L
30/10	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	1-2	11	5	L
24/10	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
17/10	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
10/10	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	3-1	5	5	W
19/09	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-3	1	3	L
13/09	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
06/09	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
29/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-2	10	3	L
21/08	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	3-2	9	1	W

Jagiellonia Bialystok

WLWLLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
31/10	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-1	5	1	W
25/10	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
18/10	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
10/10	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-3	4	6	L
20/09	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
11/09	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
06/09	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
03/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
30/08	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	5-2	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cracovia Krakow win (39%). Probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 39%, draw 26%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 35%.

How many goals are expected in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Cracovia Krakow 1.58 · Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.