Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 20/11, 18:00

Prediction: Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce

Team pages: Piast Gliwice · Korona Kielce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Piast Gliwice1.44

Korona Kielce1.36

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Piast Gliwice Draw Korona Kielce

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Piast Gliwice 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDWDD

Korona Kielce 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Piast Gliwice 1–5–0 Korona Kielce (6 last)

Korona Kielce1-1Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice0-0Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice1-1Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce0-2Piast Gliwice
Korona Kielce1-1Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice0-0Korona Kielce

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Piast Gliwice 1563 · Korona Kielce 1464

	Piast Gliwice	Draw	Korona Kielce
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Piast Gliwice (rating 1563 vs 1464).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Piast Gliwice	Korona Kielce
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.6	3.4 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.60 ★
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:45 +5’	2.38	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +12’	2.50	3.60	2.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Piast Gliwice 1–5–0 Korona Kielce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	1-1 HT 0-0	Piast Gliwice
31/10/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Piast Gliwice	0-0 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce
19/04/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Piast Gliwice	1-1 HT 0-1	Korona Kielce
18/10/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	0-2 HT 0-1	Piast Gliwice
05/05/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Korona Kielce	1-1 HT 0-1	Piast Gliwice
03/11/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Piast Gliwice	0-0 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	34	13	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	23	12	31
3	Legia Warsaw	14	6	6	2	25	15	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	20	15	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	22	19	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	18	17	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	24	20	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	25	20	21
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	13	7	0	6	18	18	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	22	24	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
13	Widzew Lodz	14	2	8	4	20	19	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
16	Rakow Czestochowa	14	4	0	10	23	31	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	17	25	10
18	Wieczysta Krakow	14	2	2	10	18	28	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Piast Gliwice	Korona Kielce
Slask Wroclaw	0-0 D	2-1 W
Wisla Plock	2-2 D	2-0 W
Gornik Zabrze	1-1 D	0-2 L
Pogon Szczecin	1-2 L	0-2 L
Radomiak Radom	2-0 W	0-2 L
GKS Katowice	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Piast Gliwice (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Piast Gliwice

DWWWLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
31/10	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-2	1	5	D
24/10	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
18/10	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
11/10	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
20/09	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
14/09	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
04/09	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-0	3	9	W
29/08	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
22/08	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-1	4	4	D

Korona Kielce

WDWLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	20	9	L
02/11	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
24/10	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
18/10	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-4	1-6	7	5	L
11/10	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
19/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-2	7	4	W
15/09	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
05/09	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
28/08	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Piast Gliwice win (38%). Probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38%, draw 27%, Korona Kielce 35%.

How many goals are expected in Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Piast Gliwice 1.44 · Korona Kielce 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.