Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Pogon Szczecin
Team pages: Jagiellonia Bialystok · Pogon Szczecin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Jagiellonia Bialystok1.7
Pogon Szczecin0.87
1X2
Jagiellonia Bialystok
Draw
Pogon Szczecin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Jagiellonia Bialystok
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Pogon Szczecin
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Jagiellonia Bialystok
2–4–0
Pogon Szczecin
(6 last)
- Jagiellonia Bialystok3-2Pogon Szczecin
- Pogon Szczecin1-2Jagiellonia Bialystok
- Jagiellonia Bialystok1-1Pogon Szczecin
- Pogon Szczecin1-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
- Jagiellonia Bialystok2-2Pogon Szczecin
- Pogon Szczecin1-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jagiellonia Bialystok (rating 1589 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Jagiellonia Bialystok: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Pogon Szczecin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.8 | 1.9 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok 2–4–0 Pogon Szczecin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Pogon Szczecin |
| 09/11/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 24/05/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Pogon Szczecin |
| 01/12/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 26/04/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Pogon Szczecin |
| 03/04/24 Poland Cup | Pogon Szczecin | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Legia Warsaw | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Widzew Lodz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Slask Wroclaw | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Zaglebie Lubin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Radomiak Radom | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Piast Gliwice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 17 | Rakow Czestochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Krakow | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jagiellonia Bialystok
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 06/08 | Rangers UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | LKS Lomza Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | FC Nordsjaelland Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 16/07 | Sparta Prague Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Pafos FC Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Pogon Szczecin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 24/07 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/07 | SK Sturm Graz Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Fenerbahce Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 08/07 | Chrobry Glogow Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | BFC Dynamo Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Pogon Szczecin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok win (56%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok 56%, draw 26%, Pogon Szczecin 18%.
How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Pogon Szczecin?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.7 · Pogon Szczecin 0.87), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Pogon Szczecin?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.