Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 21/11, 20:15

Prediction: Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow

Team pages: Radomiak Radom · Wisla Krakow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Radomiak Radom1.2

Wisla Krakow1.58

1X2

28% 26% 45%

Radomiak Radom Draw Wisla Krakow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Radomiak Radom 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Wisla Krakow 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLDWLW

Head-to-head

Radomiak Radom 2–1 Wisla Krakow (3 last)

Radomiak Radom4-2Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow0-1Radomiak Radom
Wisla Krakow2-1Radomiak Radom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Radomiak Radom 1494 · Wisla Krakow 1536

	Radomiak Radom	Draw	Wisla Krakow
Our model	28%	27%	45%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wisla Krakow (rating 1494 vs 1536).
H2H favours Radomiak Radom: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Radomiak Radom	Wisla Krakow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.4	2.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.40 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.82
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.01

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +4’	3.20	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +8’	3.40	3.82	2.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Radomiak Radom 2–0–1 Wisla Krakow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/22 Poland Ekstraklasa	Radomiak Radom	4-2 HT 0-1	Wisla Krakow
26/11/21 Poland Ekstraklasa	Wisla Krakow	0-1 HT 0-1	Radomiak Radom
26/06/19 Europe Friendlies	Wisla Krakow	2-1 HT 1-1	Radomiak Radom

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	34	13	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	23	12	31
3	Legia Warsaw	14	6	6	2	25	15	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	20	15	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	22	19	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	18	17	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	24	20	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	25	20	21
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	13	7	0	6	18	18	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	22	24	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
13	Widzew Lodz	14	2	8	4	20	19	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
16	Rakow Czestochowa	14	4	0	10	23	31	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	17	25	10
18	Wieczysta Krakow	14	2	2	10	18	28	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Radomiak Radom	Wisla Krakow
Korona Kielce	2-0 W	1-1 D
Slask Wroclaw	3-1 W	2-1 W
Pogon Szczecin	3-4 L	2-2 D
Lech Poznan	1-5 L	1-3 L
Widzew Lodz	0-0 D	0-0 D
Cracovia Krakow	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Radomiak Radom

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	3	9	W
02/11	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	3-1	9	5	W
24/10	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	2-2	3-4	7	5	L
19/10	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
12/10	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-3	3	7	L
20/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	1-3	1-5	6	3	L
14/09	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	14	3	L
05/09	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
29/08	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-1	10	3	W
23/08	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	10	3	D

Wisla Krakow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	2-1	5	9	W
31/10	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-3	2	0	L
24/10	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-1	1	1	W
16/10	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
11/10	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
18/09	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
11/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
05/09	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
29/08	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
23/08	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	2-2	2-2	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wisla Krakow win (45%). Probabilities: Radomiak Radom 28%, draw 26%, Wisla Krakow 45%.

How many goals are expected in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Radomiak Radom 1.2 · Wisla Krakow 1.58), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.