Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 20/11, 20:30

Prediction: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw

Team pages: Pogon Szczecin · Slask Wroclaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Pogon Szczecin1.87

Slask Wroclaw1.17

1X2

53% 25% 23%

Pogon Szczecin Draw Slask Wroclaw

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pogon Szczecin 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWWLL

Slask Wroclaw 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLLWLD

Head-to-head

Pogon Szczecin 2–1–3 Slask Wroclaw (6 last)

Slask Wroclaw2-1Pogon Szczecin
Slask Wroclaw1-1Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin5-3Slask Wroclaw
Slask Wroclaw0-1Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin0-2Slask Wroclaw
Pogon Szczecin0-2Slask Wroclaw

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pogon Szczecin 1516 · Slask Wroclaw 1454

	Pogon Szczecin	Draw	Slask Wroclaw
Our model	53%	25%	23%
Market	53%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pogon Szczecin (rating 1516 vs 1454).
H2H favours Slask Wroclaw: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pogon Szczecin	Slask Wroclaw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.77
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.93 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.19

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +85’	1.73	3.70	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +13’	1.77	3.93	4.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pogon Szczecin 2–1–3 Slask Wroclaw

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 Poland Cup	Slask Wroclaw	2-1 HT 1-0	Pogon Szczecin
07/03/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Slask Wroclaw	1-1 HT 0-0	Pogon Szczecin
01/09/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Pogon Szczecin	5-3 HT 3-2	Slask Wroclaw
11/02/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Slask Wroclaw	0-1 HT 0-0	Pogon Szczecin
30/08/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Pogon Szczecin	0-2 HT 0-1	Slask Wroclaw
05/02/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Pogon Szczecin	0-2 HT 0-0	Slask Wroclaw

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	34	13	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	23	12	31
3	Legia Warsaw	14	6	6	2	25	15	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	20	15	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	22	19	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	18	17	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	24	20	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	25	20	21
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	13	7	0	6	18	18	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	22	24	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
13	Widzew Lodz	14	2	8	4	20	19	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
16	Rakow Czestochowa	14	4	0	10	23	31	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	17	25	10
18	Wieczysta Krakow	14	2	2	10	18	28	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pogon Szczecin	Slask Wroclaw
Widzew Lodz	0-3 L	3-3 D
Radomiak Radom	4-3 W	1-3 L
Korona Kielce	2-0 W	1-2 L
Piast Gliwice	2-1 W	0-0 D
Wieczysta Krakow	2-0 W	2-0 W
Wisla Krakow	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pogon Szczecin (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pogon Szczecin

DDDWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
02/11	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-3	6	7	L
24/10	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	2-2	4-3	2	5	W
17/10	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
11/10	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
20/09	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
13/09	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
07/09	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
29/08	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
23/08	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	2-2	2-2	2	5	D

Slask Wroclaw

DDLLLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
02/11	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-3	7	5	L
25/10	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/10	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-3	1	5	L
10/10	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-4	3	5	L
18/09	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/09	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
06/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-2	7	2	L
28/08	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
22/08	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	3-3	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pogon Szczecin win (53%). Probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 53%, draw 25%, Slask Wroclaw 23%.

How many goals are expected in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Pogon Szczecin 1.87 · Slask Wroclaw 1.17), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.