Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 22/11, 12:15

Prediction: Rakow Czestochowa vs Widzew Lodz

Team pages: Rakow Czestochowa · Widzew Lodz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Rakow Czestochowa1.72

Widzew Lodz1.35

1X2

45% 26% 29%

Rakow Czestochowa Draw Widzew Lodz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Rakow Czestochowa 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLWW

Widzew Lodz 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLDDLW

Head-to-head

Rakow Czestochowa 4–2–0 Widzew Lodz (6 last)

Rakow Czestochowa1-1Widzew Lodz
Widzew Lodz0-1Rakow Czestochowa
Rakow Czestochowa2-1Widzew Lodz
Widzew Lodz2-3Rakow Czestochowa
Widzew Lodz0-1Rakow Czestochowa
Rakow Czestochowa1-1Widzew Lodz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rakow Czestochowa 1482 · Widzew Lodz 1486

	Rakow Czestochowa	Draw	Widzew Lodz
Our model	45%	26%	29%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rakow Czestochowa: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rakow Czestochowa	Widzew Lodz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	3.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.80 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.39

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:41 +31’	2.05	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +5’	2.02	3.80	3.39

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Rakow Czestochowa 4–2–0 Widzew Lodz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	1-1 HT 0-0	Widzew Lodz
28/09/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Widzew Lodz	0-1 HT 0-0	Rakow Czestochowa
24/05/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	2-1 HT 1-0	Widzew Lodz
30/11/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Widzew Lodz	2-3 HT 1-2	Rakow Czestochowa
27/04/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Widzew Lodz	0-1 HT 0-0	Rakow Czestochowa
29/10/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Rakow Czestochowa	1-1 HT 0-1	Widzew Lodz

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	34	13	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	23	12	31
3	Legia Warsaw	14	6	6	2	25	15	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	20	15	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	22	19	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	18	17	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	24	20	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	25	20	21
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	13	7	0	6	18	18	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	22	24	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
13	Widzew Lodz	14	2	8	4	20	19	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
16	Rakow Czestochowa	14	4	0	10	23	31	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	17	25	10
18	Wieczysta Krakow	14	2	2	10	18	28	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rakow Czestochowa	Widzew Lodz
Legia Warsaw	4-2 W	1-1 D
Pogon Szczecin	3-1 W	3-0 W
Wisla Krakow	1-2 L	0-0 D
Wieczysta Krakow	2-1 W	2-2 D
GKS Katowice	1-4 L	2-3 L
Lech Poznan	0-1 L	2-3 L
Gornik Zabrze	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Widzew Lodz (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rakow Czestochowa

LLWLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	4-2	2	0	W
02/11	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	3-1	7	7	W
24/10	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
16/10	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
09/10	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
19/09	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
15/09	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-3	5	9	L
11/09	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
06/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
03/09	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-2	4	3	L

Widzew Lodz

DLDDDLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
31/10	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
23/10	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
16/10	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
11/10	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-2	13	4	L
18/09	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
13/09	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
05/09	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
30/08	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	2-3	7	3	L
22/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-3	0	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rakow Czestochowa vs Widzew Lodz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rakow Czestochowa win (45%). Probabilities: Rakow Czestochowa 45%, draw 26%, Widzew Lodz 29%.

How many goals are expected in Rakow Czestochowa vs Widzew Lodz?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Rakow Czestochowa 1.72 · Widzew Lodz 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rakow Czestochowa vs Widzew Lodz?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.